BATE Borisov vs Qarabag
Sometimes it is really difficult to understand these odds. I refer on the 2.20 for the home win. I was surprised also when saw in the first leg BATE was 4.00+ underdog. BTW they have been successful in Azerbaijan and came back home with nice 1:0 advantage.
IMO quality of the football in Azerbaijan is not yet on the required level. Yes someone would argue it's not in Belarus either but we must agree BATE Borisov is way above quality of their national league. After all, even five Champions League group stages for them speak for itself.
BATE started this season from the second qualifying round and eliminated Helsinki (0:0 at home and 2:1 road win).
Qarabag had to go from the very first round. They have had two not so strong opponents, firstly Olimpija Ljubljana who at that moment early in the season was in desperate form. Qarabag barely passed team from Slovenia with 1:0 aggregate score. Then they met with Albanian team, Kukesi (0:0 on the road and 3:0 at home).
I have strong impression BATE is way too big obstacle for them.
So, all that being said, today's odds on home team are very tempting and I was close to opting for such bet. But, although I expect BATE Borisov to win, at the end I still opted for different approach towards this match. I have decided to go with First Half Draw.
Namely, given on the initial 1:0 for BATE, I doubt the host would push too much in this second leg. This hlaftime X is pretty much often outcome on their games. As I mention they finished 0:0 even against Helsinki although back then it was first leg.
Qarabag on the other side in three of their four so far European games in this season has played 0:0 at halftime.
Vasiljevic and Simovic are absent in the team of BATE Borisov.
Honestly I don't expect to see here goal early on, so probably 0:0 halftime @2.50 is nice bet. But I will go with more safe bet, with simple halftime draw for odds 2.00.
BATE Borisov vs Qarabag prediction
|Halftime X||Pinnacle||2.00||8||1-0 HT LOST (-8 units)|