Kukesi vs Qarabag
Kukesi host Qarabag in CL 1st leg.
Both teams are not in competitive form and to expect many goals here is craziness. First I was thinking to post anything different and it was under 2.5 goals, but the odds dropped from about 1.60 in bet365 to 1.47, so now I don't see value, unless I combine with one more match. It's still an option, but after I looked a lot of statistical things and current form of the teams, i am even surer we will see 1 or 2 goals max and we can expect them by the visitors.
Kukesi made coach change during the tie with the Maltese Valetta, but the new manager will need time. It was obvious, because after the poor goalless draw in Albania, they got lucky to progress after 1:1 draw in Malta. In the 2nd leg Valetta were obviously the better team with more possession and goal chances, while in the first match in Albania none of them was better, absolutely equal match with almost no chances for goal. When you sell your top scorer- Sindrit Guri, you can't expect a lot of positive things in attack ,when the other options are not so reliable. I just can't see how Kukesi will score tomorrow against an opponent, which can be excellent in defense and proved it so many times. Don't expect a lot of things to chance so fast in one or two weeks in the Albanian club. When I saw they lost and drew against two Montenegro clubs in the recent years at home, that speaks a lot. OK, they got one prestigious win against Sheriff from Moldova 2:1, although they were eliminated in the revenge, but that's the only positive home result in Europe for them in the last 4 seasons.
Qarabag...Azer team, which played in the CL group stages during the last season and got two draws against Atletico Madrid 0:0 and 1:1 and two minimal losses against Roma. They proved they can play extremely good in defense and the two matches against Ljubljana proved that, when they won 0:1 in Slovenia, while in Azerbaijan they made goalless draw. Gurban Gurbanov is their coach for so many years and know his squad perfectly well. They reduced the Brazilians in the last seasons and now they rely much more on local players. They still have the quality to win against such kind of opponents.
Infact Qarabag played in the last four seasons in CL or EL group stages, so to underestimate such team is big mistake. It's not easy to play in the Balkans, that includes in Albania, but Kukesi are not in good form, that's obvious and Qarabag know how to score, even if they face only one real chance during the game. Under 2.5 goals in tempting bet and only two results are in my head here- 0:1 or 0:2. Two are the reasons for my bet, which is correct score 0:1 for Qarabag. First of them is that if you see Qarabag stats, when they won away from home, usually they make it with 0:1. The second reason is the absence of Dani Quintana, very creative attacking midfielder, so 2 goals without him are really tough task- he was top-scorer of the team in 2015/2016 in their domestic league.
Kukesi vs Qarabag prediction
|Correct score 0:1||Bet365||5.00||6||0-0 LOST (-6 units)|