Crvena zvezda vs Suduva
Champions League qualifications, Round 2, first leg
This is now the 4th game for Crvena zvezda in this seaaon, the 3rd European. After they have eliminated Latvian Spartaks (0:0 away and 2:0 at home), the Serbian champion will meet now with Suduva who was season ago the best team in Lithuania. In the meantime and after first qualifying round, Crvena zvezda also played opening round of Serbian championship and defeated at home the newcomer, Dinamo Vranje with 3:0.
CZ wasn't impressive so far but at least their defense looked strong. There is one new guy in the defensive line compared with season ago and that looked fine, at leaat for now.
In attack though, it wasn't all smooth so far. The new striker Stojiljkovic got injured right away and this had a little bit affect on to call that way "offensive struggle". In only one game CZ was leading at halftime, it was in this one mentioned against Dinamo Vranje. Even back then it was late first half goal for 1:0 after first 45 minutes. Against Spartaks at home, Crvena zvezda has scored both goals near the end of the match for final 2:0.
IMO we can expect relatively early goal today. By early I mean the host to lead at halftime.
I was paying attention a little bit on Suduva. In fact I wanted to see how APOEL plays cause it was expected they would be the aggregate winner of those two legs and would face Serbian team. But instead it turned out Suduva has won 3:2 on aggregate.
But that was pretty much one way traffic when Suduva visited Cyprus. Namely at home Suduva surprisingly won 3:1. They have scored three relatively early goals and in very short period of times. So although APOEL dominated, all they could do is to score once, late in the game, in the injury time. But even that one goal gave them realistic chance to qualify with upcoming second leg at home. But, only 1:0 in second leg. APOEL played well, attacking all the times, chance after chance, numerous shots on goal. But at the end, Suduva managed to hold on with minimal 1:0 loss.
I see in today's game completely the same approach by Suduva. They will again try to achieve result by heavy defending. What is good for my bet is the fact that even when they concedes, IMO nothing will chance in Suduva tactics.
That being said, I was thinking about few options here. Again seems home win to nill to be the safest bet but it pays only 1.44 (at least in bet365). HT FT, 1/1 is another one and with a little bit better odds, 1.61. Also CZ to lead at halftime and under 2.5 in that period (@1.66) is the winning bet if you ask me. With such choice we would need 1:0 or 2:0 at HT.
But after some recent too cautious bets on CZ and those half stake losses I had, I decided to go with bigger risk this time. So, I opted for 1:0 first half correct score. It's the outcome in the line with above mentioned scenarios (the host to lead already at HT, Suduva to be focus only on defense and not to score, especially not to score in the first 45 minutes).
The only small concern is to we might see 2:0. But I hope we wont. I mean we shouldn't given on mentioned some kind of offensive struggle for Zvezda early in the season, we shouldn't given on expected parked bus in front of Suduva goal even after possible 1:0.
In any case, 2.75 for 1:0 score at halftime IMO worth a try.
Crvena zvezda vs Suduva prediction
|1:0 halftime correct score||Bet365||2.75||8||2-0 LOST (-8 units)|