Djurgarden vs Elfsborg (By: Iniestaone)

Swedish Cup match between Djurgården and Elfsborg

This is a bet that is circulating a bit on a couple of Swedish betting communities so I figured I would share it with you here as I will be placing money on Elfsborg to win today.

This is the final group stage match between leaders Djurgården and second placed Elfsborg. DIF has 6 points and a GD of 5:1 while Elfsborg has 4 points and a GD of 6:2. I have a very hard time understanding why the odds are so high on Elfsborg, this is a must win match for them as the only team that progresses is the group winner. I would expect these odds to be set by someone who quickly checked the teams' previous results in the group and their results in the final stages of last year's Allsvenskan where Djurgården had a better finish to the season than Elfsborg and ended up on 7th place while Elfsborg finished on 12th but there are other things to consider so i'll break it down for you here and you can make an informed choice if you want to bet on this match today.

Elfsborg started the group stage here with a win at Hässleholm by 5-1 and most recently they played a 1-1 draw versus IK Frej at home which was one of those very rare games where one team completely dominates and yet the other team scores a goal. I can't see Elfsborg the margins against them like that two times in a row, they stacked up chance after chance and Levi even missed an open goal in the first half. Considering how they scored five at Hässleholm, their struggle to score against Frej was the exception rather than the rule. They equalized in the final seconds of the match though.

Meanwhile, Djurgården started their campaign with a 2-1 win over Frej and 3-0 vs Hässleholm. Hardly that big of a difference compared to Elfsborg's results versus those teams.

For today's match, Djurgården is still missing some of the players who are supposed to be key players for them this season as Turay is yet to make his debut, Bärkroth is out, Erik Berg's knee is still keeping him from play and Ajdarevic has been named in the squad but it remains to be seen how fit he is and if he can play 90 minutes. Elfsborg is bringing a very strong squad to Stockholm and I read a short interview where Ishizaki spoke about how much the last second equalizer vs Frej meant for the team and their motivation to put in a strong performance against DIF.

So, all in all, should Elfsborg be underdogs at 4.79? No. Should they be underdogs at all? I don't know but at least not by a notable margin. These two teams have a history of even encounters, four of the last five matches have ended 2-2 and this is one where they will be chasing the goals so its a lot more of an open match than under different circumstances.

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Djurgarden vs Elfsborg predictions

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Elfsborg Pinnacle 4.79 6 3-2 LOST (-6 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
Djurgarden vs Elfsborg betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).
+14 -2
 
Comments (2)
Sweem
Have to agree on the value on this one. Elfsborg are priced really high. Realistically 3.00 at the very highest in my view considering the team situations and the must win situation. The cup is also the place where "upsets" happen quite frequently. Both teams are still in semi "pre-season" mode so really a coinflip.

03/03/2019 - 13:50
iniestaone
Agreed, around 3 times the money sounds far more reasonable, it does look like the odds are being sliced at the moment
03/03/2019 - 15:03
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