Crvena zvezda vs Limoges (By: Clinch)
Happy New Year everyone, I wish you luck in betting and in life in general!
I was looking at this game all the way since the Crvena Zvezda game against Budućnost and in that game I was also on Crvena Zvezda -7.5 even though some of the punters for some reason wanted a surprise of Budućnost in that one. I mean, Crvena Zvezda beat them twice on their court at the beginning of the season with double digits…yes, Budućnost added new players but they were without a coach and on the road. Budućnost seemed doing well in 3rd QT but quality of Crvena Zvezda prevailed.
Anyway, while analysing this game I also made my own prediction of what the bookies will come out with and I wrote down -8.5 and this is exactly what they came with what makes me even more confident taking this bet.
In the first part of the season Crvena Zvezda made some surprising results, such as their loss to poor Brescia but lately they seem doing just fine. In important game they destroyed Brescia at home and after that, in a game without significance for both teams, won in Istanbul against Galatasaray while scoring 100 points. The same Galatasaray which won after that against Fenerbahce giving them their first league loss. Crvena Zvezda is also a rare team in Europe that still didn’t lose in their domestic championship…and by my estimate, ABA league, even though not very popular, is one of the strongest and most competitive leagues in Europe! Crvena Zvezda is a team you will see next season playing in Euroleague and by my estimate they will be at the top of the EL table at around 5th place. To make it simple, just imagine it being a Serbian Olympiakos! Not only these clubs are very friendly, they also have similar jerseys and they also have an experienced ex Olympiakos player Perperoglu(also Panathinaikos, Efes and Barcelona) who seems to be in the good shape. Crvena Zvezda is really strong in the paint, with Hulk alike Nigerian player Ojo, very experienced and solid German player Zirbes and they have good PG and shooters, but what is most important they play defense…so basically good defense and good offense, what makes me confident in playing this bet and believing that Crvena Zvezda will make difference and win this game comfortably.
On other side will be French team, Limoges who likes to play the games without defense and in that case they most of the times get out with a win. They have collected 4 straight wins but mostly against defenseless opponents which let them score 80+ points in those games. In their last game I had a bet that Boulazac will not let them score more than 83 points, but they still managed to go over. By looking at the statistics and highlights from that game, Limoges managed to score at least 20 easy points in the paint where Boulazac defense completely fell apart and this will not happen in Belgrade, as I said Crvena Zvezda is solid defensively and have strong guys in the paint. In that game they also made some amazing three pointers but they will not be able to live of that only in this game. And I have to say that Limoges defense is poor, they allowed an average team like Boulazac to score 20+ points in each QT what makes me think that Crvena Zvezda will do the same while at the same time they will not allow Limoges to score many points.
There is also comparison to make with Cedevita against which both teams played this season. Limoges lost in Zagreb against Cedevita 91:71 while Cedevita lost in Belgrade against Estrella Roja(Crvena Zvezda:) by 15 points. So just by this we could expect a 30 points difference made in this game. Limoges also lost to all top teams in French championship by around 20 points and I believe Crvena Zvezda would be top team(probably first) in French league. The only worrying factor in this game is that Crvena Zveda lost to Monaco in Belgrade, but they obviously had a bad game both defensively and offensively and will be cautious against another French team. Limoges is not better than Budućnost for sure and Crvena Zvezda beat them three times this season with double digits, so basically a team which would also beat CSKA, Baskonia, Barcelona and probably others who took a win in Podgorica(except Fener) and all these teams are way better than Limoges.
I see a 94:67 result in this game.
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Crvena zvezda vs Limoges prediction
|Crvena Zvezda -14.5||Bet365||3.10||8||83-71 LOST (-8 units)|