Bayern vs Zalgiris
Bayern Munchen - Zalgiris Kaunas
Well ... two teams placed very close in the Euroleague rankings, with Zalgiris sitting on 8, the last qualyfiong spot, and Bayern being only two spots lower, on the 10th place.
Bayern is a average Euroleague team, visibly better at home than on the road, as most of them. What makes me wonder why they are favourites here is the fact that Zalgiris is obviously better on the road.
The greens won this year at strong teams like Anadolu Efes and Panathinaikos. They also won at Buducnost. They lost only one on the road, in overtime, at one of the best Euroleague teams, CSKA.
So they covered ATS all their 4 road games this year and 27 out of 29 road games in the past 3 seasons when ther opponents were favoured by at least 2 points.
Quite impressive, mmm?
They will miss Wolters and Kavaliauskas while Bayern will miss Devin Booker.
I think Booker's absence will count more, as the Lithuanians are a wll oiled machine which is based more on the system than on the individuals, while Bayern are not there. Actually that's also a big reason for the greens being so successsful on the road.
For my power ranking Zalgiris should be slightly favourites here, by 2-3 points. As the bookmakers see the opposite, I think there's good value in their odds.
You can take them against the spread; yet as far as Pinnacle offers 2.120 odds for Zalgiris -1 and Bet365 offers 2.20 for the ML, I think there's even more value in this 2.20 odds.
Let's go green!
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Bayern vs Zalgiris prediction
|Zalgiris ML||Bet365||2.20||9||88-84 LOST (-9 units)|