Serbia vs Greece
Serbia hosting Greece in World Cup qualifying game. Obviously the match is much more important for Serbia who is in race for third place in this group than it's important for Greek team who is current leader with perfect 9-0 record and who already took the job done and who is without any worries about qualifying for the final tournament. Still, current line (Serbia 11.5 to 12 pts favorite) is ridiculous. So, my initial lean was Greece plus the points. But, there is small concern how motivated Greece would be in today's game, so at the end I skipped this option although Greece +12 seems very tempting in my eyes.
Compared with previous games, Greece will be this time without its captain Ioannis Bourousis. Serbia on the other hand compared with embarrassing loss the other day away in Israel, this time will be stronger for couple Euroleague players. These are Vasilije Micic from Efes and Stefan Jovic from Bayern Munich. The third player who was announced that will be back, Vladimir Lucic, at the end it turned out wont be able to play today.
Fact that Greece will be a little bit weakened while Serbia stronger for couple guys, IMO is still not enough reason for such -12 line. Note that not so long ago Greece at home defeated Serbia with 7 pts difference. When we are talking about that game, it should be mentioned it was really easy under the totals back then, only 133 pts. This is not in the line with my expectations for today's match. Namely, today I expect 160+ pts. But, if we know Serbia is good offensive side, if we know they usually scores a lot on home court, if we count on fact Greece could play one relaxed game that usually result in better offense and not paying too much attention on defense, then IMO we should expect today's match will be way different in term of totals than the previous one played in Greece.
Even if today's match is "to be or not to be" for both sides, I would still rather risk with over than under the totals cause rarely you'll see two similar games between two same teams in relatively short period of time.
Serbia vs Greece prediction
|Over 156.5||Pinnacle||1.88||8||84-61 LOST (-8 units)|