Luxembourg vs Belarus
That's a game from Group 2 in League D between Luxembourg and Belarus.
Two games left in this group and the situation is:
Luxembourg- 9 points, Belarus- 8 points, Moldova- 5 points and San Marino- 0 points.
Luxembourg perform very well, even unexpectedly good after 4:0 home win against Moldova, two 3:0 wins against San Marino and a close 1:0 loss as visitors to Belarus. Belarus are their main contender for the 1st place as they beat them at home, also San Marino with 5:0, but their two goalless draws against Moldova can cost them the promotion in League C. For me, Luxembourg is the team, which surprise much more in this group with their convincing games and maybe it will be deserved, if they finish 1st in the end. Even Moldova's chances for the 1st place are practically 0%, because they need two wins against Luxembourg and San Marino, but also Belarus to take something from Luxembourg(better draw) and then to lose points against San Marino, which is science fiction for me.
So, why I chose the draw here? Two are the main reasons.
Firstly, I expect the intrigue in this group to be saved to the last round. Everything is so close right now and Moldova is looking to be the dark horse in the last round if we see a draw. What do I mean? A draw will save both team's chances for the 1st place and Luxembourg will keep the point advantage of Belarus and everything will be in their hands, but in the last round Belarus will visit San Marino and it's sure they will take the max points, so Luxembourg will also have to take the win in Moldova. That's why I think there's a big chance this one to happen and Moldova to be the factor which team will be promoted and which not. A win for any of the teams tomorrow will practically promote them- if Luxembourg win, they will theoretically qualify in 1st place, but if Belarus did it, they will have 2 points advantage and will earn the promotion against San Marino.
Secondly, in their first match in Belarus, Luxembourg a little bit dominated as possession and shots, but couldn't score a single goal and lost with 1:0. Belarus didn't concede a goal in Nations Laegue till now, being with 6:0 goal difference, while Luxembourg also have only 1 goal conceded by Belarus, so it's obvious they have stable defensive lines.
Luxembourg will be with their best tomorrow, while Belarus will miss a few players like Nikita Korzun(injured)+ Dzyanis Laptsew, Pavel Nyakhaychyk and Yury Kendysh, who were also missed in October. Alexander Hleb is in the squad!
To sum up, Luxembourg are expected to try to take the control of the match tomorrow, but both teams know one goal in their net could cost them the 1st place, so I expect really close game without much goal chances. Belarus know that a draw is also a good result for them, because it will save their chances and will look for Moldova to take something at home against Luxembourg after three days, which is absolutely possible. That's the reason why I think Luxembourg will give their best to win this game and to decide everything, while Belarus will defend on very high level and can use one of the chances even to score.
Two tight defenses and both team can not risk too much to rush into attacks+ I have the feeling the intrigue will be saved till the last round and mostly the match Moldova-Luxembourg will decide everything. I am going with the draw here.
Luxembourg vs Belarus prediction
|Draw||Bet365||3.25||8||0-2 LOST (-8 units)|