Dusseldorf vs Hertha (By: Pancakes)
- Fortuna Dusseldorf have lost 7 of their last 9 home matches in the league.
- 8 of those 9 matches featured over 2.5 goals.
- In each of Hertha Berlin's last 9 away victories in the Bundesliga they have scored at least 2 goals.
I am seeking to combine these three statistics into the best value bet I can find and believe backing Hertha to win & over 2.5 goals in the game is the best way to do so (at odds of 3.25).
Hertha have had a tough run of fixtures recently including matches against Bayern, Leipzig and Dortmund but have acquitted themselves well and have taken points in all their last 5 matches apart from the defeat v Leipzig. These battling performances showed character and a team who will hope to finish well in the league, they also show a team that should very comfortably take 3 points against Dusseldorf.
I understand there will be those who may prefer to simply back the Hertha win, which is available at a decent enough price, but I really feel this match presents an opportunity for a win at bigger odds. The statistics point to both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals - despite failing to net in their last 2 home matches, Fortuna had scored in each of their previous 16 home Bundesliga matches (admittedly this is dating back some time). The bet can also win with a resounding Hertha victory to nil (and that is not out of the question given 3 of the last 5 matches Fortuna played ended in 3-0 defeats) so the extra value available over the simple Hertha win bet is too good to miss in my opinion.
Both sides' league matches are averaging well above 2.5 goals and Fortuna Dusseldorf have lost their last 6 games, giving hope for a nice value bet this weekend.
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Dusseldorf vs Hertha prediction
|Hertha Berlin win & over 2.5 goals in game||Bet365||3.25||5||4-1 LOST (-5 units)|