Turkey vs Sweden
A key match for both sides, who know that failing to win here will mean they have no chance of winning the group (Sweden will face Russia in Stockholm a few days later, in the group's final game).
I'm posting this this tip early (October 31st) on the view that people may be able to snap up some early value, as I doubt the price will be this high* come matchday.
First we start with the obvious statistic that on the past three occasions these two countries have faced one another both teams have scored in the game. Indeed, in five of the past six meetings the bet would have landed (although that is going back some years).
The main motivation for this pick, however, is that I actually attended the first game between the two sides a few weeks ago (Turkey won 3-2 with two late goals) and it was as open a football match as I can recall seeing in my life. Both sides were attacking every time they got the ball, with little regard for keeping things tight at the back. In addition, both teams know that victory is essential if they are to have any chance of winning the group and so there is little point in either side sitting back and defending, unless of course they have already scored a goal (which is perfect for our bet).
I was truly surprised to see these odds above 1.80 and would strongly recommend anyone who is thinking of placing a bet to do so sooner rather than later.
*At time of writing odds of 2.0 are actually available at a couple of bookmakers shown on Oddschecker.
Turkey vs Sweden prediction
|Both teams to score||Bet365||1.91||9||0-1 LOST (-9 units)|