Latvia vs Georgia
Latvia will host Georgia in Riga in the 4th round of group 1 in league D.
*A little diversion from this match. Why I chose to play this game. Well, home games of France, Ireland, Norway, Slovenia and Gibraltar are very tough for me to be predicted, have some ideas about two/three of them, but not enough to make picks with great chance for success. Damir made a pick about Armenia-Macedonia, Ukraine will qualify for League A tonight, even if they make a draw against the Czech republic, so I have two real options: Kazakhstan-Andorra- home win with AH, because Andorra are too weak and have suspended players and also Latvia-Georgia.
I was looking for this match since the beginning of Nations League matches in October, which maybe sounds a little bit strange, but it's an obvious under 2.5 goals. With the current standings in the group it's even clearer Georgia will not put a lot of effort in this game. What's the situation in group A in league D:
-Georgia- 9 points; Kazakhstan, Latvia and Andorra- 2 points.
So, a win in Latvia will practically mean a place for Georgia in league C with no chance to be reached. OK, that's true, but is the difference between Georgia and the other teams in the group so big, which the points present to us? I don't think so.. Georgia just scored their chances in Kazakhstan in the first game and the final result 0:2 doesn't represent what really happened during the match, while against Latvia at home they took 1:0 win via penalty in 77th minute. Georgia had more possession and goal chances, but Latvians were defending very well, until the penalty they conceded 15 minutes before the end of the match. Against Andorra was absolutely one-sided match and the result should be even bigger than 3:0.
The main Georgian forward Giorgi Kvilitaia is out for these matches in October, while Okriashvili was also not part of the Georgian team in the match against Andorra, so that makes the job even tougher for the guests to find the precious goal. Kazaishvili is the main weapon for them to score tonight.
On the other side Latvia a little bit disappointed with the goalless draw at home against Andorra, but in the other games they made good matches and lost against the leaders Georgia with the minimal 1:0 away from home and also drew against Kazakhstan(1:1) at home. These are good results for a country which is not amongst even the middle-classed european forces.
So, why I made this pick. It is clear the match has a big chance to go under 2.5 goals and 0:1 for Georgia is maybe the most expected result, which will qualify the guests into league C. I think this will happen theoretically in November in the match against Andorra. Today I expect very slow match without a lot of goal chances, where even the draw is a good result for Georgia. Latvians don't have to be underestimated. Both teams have one match in Latvia in the last ten years and it finished 1:1 during 2010. Also Latvians have two draws at home in the group- 0:0 and 1:1, so I think there is a big chance for a third draw.
I wouldn't make this pick, if the chances for a draw were under 50% for me, but after the results 3 days ago, I think the chances for the draw in this match are even higher about 60-70%. Still don't recommend to be played with a lot of money, but you can give it a try, if you decide to follow it! I know some people will not agree with me and will try an away win, because it will qualify the guests, but let's see what will happen tonight. I still don't believe Georgians will qualify in this round in October, for me it will happen in November in Andorra.
Latvia vs Georgia prediction
|Draw+under 2.5 goals||Bet365||3.40||7||0-3 LOST (-7 units)|