Luxembourg vs San Marino
That's a match from the 4th round of group 2 in league D and it's between the teams of Luxembourg and San Marino.
This is the situation in the group after 3 matches for all the teams:
Belarus- 7 points, Luxembourg- 6 points, Moldova- 4 points, San Marino- 0 points.
Belarus will host Moldova in this round, while Luxembourg will do the same against San Marino, so two home wins are the most expected outcomes. One of them is looking to turn in absolutely one-sided game and that is the match I chose to make a pick with very good odds.
Luxembourg are no more a team, which has to be underestimated. In the last one/two years they succeeded to make some really inspiring for them results like the wins against Belarus, Hungary and the draws against physically strong team like Senegal(friendly match), Bulgaria and even France! Their team started with two very comfortable wins against Moldova at home- 4:0 and San Marino as guests- 0:3. Three days ago they were beaten by the favourites in the group- 1:0 away loss against Belarus, but in this match Luxembourg had surprisingly more possession, which is really hard. Last year Bulgaria played against Belarus and in the away game in Minsk we had such a big problem taking the control over the ball and the game at all during the whole match. So, it is obvious their team is rising and against the weakest team in the whole Europe+ home advantage, I can't see any problems for Luxembourg to repeat at least the performance they made in San Marino, when they were controlling the game during the whole time.
With Joachim, Turpel, Da Mota and Sinani they have plenty of options for the attack, while in the midfield they have Thill and Leandro Martins, who can control the ball very well, although they are only 21 and 18 years old players. I like the fact they give chances to a lot of talented lads in such an early part of their careers to play for the men national team.
On the other side San Marino are by far the weakest team in the European continent and maybe in the whole history of football. Their results are outstandingly bad. The worst of all is that they score a single goal very rarely, no matter if the opponent is called France, Moldova or Andorra for example. Since 2011 in official matches they have scored only 4 GOALS against Poland, Norway, Lithuania and Azerbaijan. Nothing changed with the years and they are still at the bottom of all countries in Europe.
For this match one of their defenders, Davide Simoncini, who was suspended for the match against Moldova, is back in the team, but another defender is out of the starting line-up(Manuel Battistini), because of yellow cards suspension.
I was looking for the best option here a lot of time, because it is almost guaranteed Luxembourg will keep a clean sheet, but after the loss against Belarus they will try to bounce back with a comfortable win and result against San Marino. -2.5 AH for the hosts looks very good at 1.63 odds in bet365, but another one really attracked me and it's over 2.5 goals+BTTS-No at 1.80 odds in bet 365. In this situation, when it's almost sure San Marino will not score, you just have to wait for three goals by Luxembourg and the pick will be correct, the same as -2.5 AH for the hosts, but here the odds are much higher. The main difference between these two picks is using AH, you can also win if the final result is 4:1, 5:1, 5:2, while with my pick you have to wait for three+ goals for the hosts and the away side not to score. In this situation is very possible to happen.
3:0/4:0 is my prediction here as a correct score.
Luxembourg vs San Marino prediction
|over 2,5+ BTTS-NO||Bet365||1.80||10||3-0 WON (+8 units)|