Atlanta Dreams vs Washington Mystics
WNBA Playoffs, semifinals, 5th game
The series is tied at two wins each. But unlike Seattle vs Phoenix series where home court was crucial factor, here we saw one road win for each side.
Atlanta was better in the regular season and that's why they earned direct place in this semifinals. Washington on the other side had to play one round more. But that QF was in fact just one game (against LA Sparks) where they took the job done in style winning with 30+ pts difference.
Washington seems to me better of these two sides. They probably would already be in the finals if were not so unfortunate to lose its best player, All star Elena Delle Donne during Game 2. She then missed the third match (the first one at home) and Atlanta took advantage of that and thus got back home court advantage. Still, Delle Donne was back for Game 4 and that immediately resulted in huge home win for Washington. But it should me mentioned she wasn't on the required level. Scored only 15 pts after had 59 combined in Game 1 and Game 2.
In any case, now in 5th match I won't risk with match winner/handicap market. IMO totals are where we can find nice winner. I mean on under the totals.
These two basically are both great defensive teams. I was listening coaches of both teams before series started as well after opening game. Both agreed defense is crucial in this series and both pointed out 170+ pts from the first match is not real picture.
In so far 4 games, it was 2/2 over/under. Under the totals was winner in Game 2 and Game 3.
Plus, if we cut the opening quarter of the Game 1 which was totally untypical, plus if we know in Game 4 everything was going in for Washington while Atlanta pretty much quit of that game early, then we can say this really was more under than over series.
In any case, now is the 5th match. Now is when matters the most. So, don't expect some All Star game result. This should look like real playoffs match and that's mean defense before offense.
The only I don't like is the fact line slashed a lot compared with initial. Namely I saw it yesterday as high as 163.5 to 164 pts. But those who are betting under IMO are on the winning side. 159.5 is still good, I don't think this is a game with more than 40 pts per quarter.
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Atlanta Dreams vs Washington Mystics prediction
|Under 159.5||Pinnacle||1.88||6||81-86 LOST (-6 units)|