Crvena zvezda vs Dinamo Vranje
Serbian Super Liga, Round 1
Here we have probably again David and Goliath story. Namely the home team is defending champion while guests are newcomer in the best Serbian division.
I really think there shouldn't be any doubts here in term of match winner. But odds are dropping pretty much all over the place and in all possible options. It is hard to find best option. I had many different bets in my head but at the end I opted for Crvena zvezda halftime -1.25 AH.
I like these bets when we can cut the risk. It didn't turn well last time when I took CZ -2.25 Fulltime when they faced Spartaks in the Champions league qualifications. It was only 2:0 win at the end. So, it was loss but only half. As I said back then, 2 was the worst scenario but I expected more. Now IMO CZ will lead at half, hopefully with 2 goals difference but should lead at least minimal. So, the worst scenario in my eyes is half stake loss.
These kind of bets with worst scenario half loss, will bring me the profit at the end, I am sure about that. Cause, if we hit just one out of three (with odds around even), we are still not in the red if the other two are only half losses. And I am quite positive on the long run, I can do much better than 33% (1 out of 3). So, that being said, I will continue with these bets when IMO the quality gap is huge.
Here today, definitely we have two sides on the different levels. I know Crvena zvezda was not too great at the start of the new season but those were only two games against Latvian champion, 0:0 & 2:0. Games where CZ dominated big time but efficiency was not too good.
But today's opponent is the one against whom I see early goal and then of course everything is much easier.
The new striker Stojiljkovic picked up small injury in his first game, I mentioned that last time. But I don't think that was the problem. I think everyone as a group need to be a little bit more focused and then they will take the job done this time much quicker.
I won't bother you about starting lineup. To be honest, it is difficult to predict at all who will start for home team today. Namely already in four days, CZ will play first leg of the second qualifying round for the Champions League. So, we might see some starters on the bench. But this is not something I am concerned about too much. After all, last season was the best example. CZ those Serbian League games before upcoming important European games, usually was winning without many trouble. Overall in the season back then, it was extremely high % of the games that Crvena zvezda has won after being up already at halftime. Against this weak rival, the newcomer, I don't think it will be different.
BTW, everyone in and around Partizan already are talking how Dinamo Vranje in this league would be nothing more than Zvezda's affiliate team (sister club) and I say let's hope there is true in those rumors cause it would be helpful for this bet.
Crvena zvezda vs Dinamo Vranje prediction
|CZ -1.25 halftime||Bet365||1.90||10||1-0 HT HALF LOST (-5 units)|