ALBA Berlin vs Bayern
German Bundesliga, playoffs finals, Game 4 in the series best of 5
After we saw these two splitting the first two games (both road victories), Bayern has won the Game 3 at home and now leads 2-1. So, team from Munich has chance to finish the job today in Berlin. But, I don't think this going to happen. IMO we are going here into 5th deciding match.
I gave such opinion (series to be finished in max number of games) also in preview for Game 3. I took back then Alba +8.5 although my expectation was Bayern to win. And they won, but only with 6 pts difference. Honestly, it wasn't too great choice back then cause Bayern was leading most of the time with big advantage, as many as 17 pts. Still, we cashed with Alba at the end.
After winning Game 1 in Munich 96:105, Alba obviously lost momentum a little bit and in next two games their offense failed. But I am not worried, Alba is averaging huge numbers overall in the season as well overall in the playoffs, they will be just fine today back to home. Also, given on fact the previous match was low scoring in general (72:66), we can say Alba offense has failed just once (in Game 2 when Alba allowed 96 but couldn't follow that and scored only 69 pts).
Home court should be big factor in this series although we are currently 1-2 from that angle. But I believe the series will be finished with 3-2 in favor of home court.
After lost opening match, Bayern changed a lot in tactics. They started to slow down the pace as much as possible and it worked. But as some Alba players said for official site (and I completely agree), they were without too many open shots. Alba is great shooting team and if they share the ball better, as long till they find clear look or at least best possible look, Alba will be just fine.
Bayern head coach Dejan Radonjić obviously finally manage to change the style of this Bayern, he manage to input his slower tempo like from the time he was on the bench of Crvena zvezda. But I am not sure it could be working here in long term. IMO Bayern has players for fast pace type of game. Also, with all credits to Radonjić, but with Aito Garcia on the other side, Alba is the one who hold the edge in coaching matchup.
Overall looking rosters, IMO Bayern has more problems late in the season. Team from Munich already for a while is without important player, Milan Mačvan, the captain of the Serbian national team. Also Hobbs injured himself during this finals. Another Serb, Vladimir Lučić was out for more than a month. He was back in the roster for this finals but failed to convince his fitness is on the required level.
The bottom line, I give more than a slight advantage to Alba, at least in this Game 4 in Berlin. In expected 5th match, probably it would be different story.
ALBA Berlin vs Bayern prediction
|Alba||Pinnacle||1.97||8||72-68 WON (+7.76 units)|