Serbia vs USA

Nations League Women (former Grand Prix), 13th round match

Serbia will meet USA. These two are both top teams. USA clearly better but IMO there is no way they should be such convincing favorite (odds on USA around 1.10). I have impression the odds are not fair from several reasons.

Firstly, USA is 11-1 so far and won 10 straight. They are current leader on the standings. But Serbia holds current third best record, 9-3. So, Serbia was pretty good too.

Furthermore, very important note could be the fact USA already secured place on the final tournament while Serbia yet need to do so. So, motivation factor should be a little bit more on the Serbian side.

Next, 9-6 is all time H2H record between these two sides. So, Serbia in general was able to cope with this strong opponent. It's true many of those previous meetings were in the long past. But if we count only the most recent, Serbia in fact was better winning two of the last three and last two straight.

In Rio 2016 Olympics, USA won 3-1 in group but Serbia won when was more important, in the semifinals of the same tournament, 3-2. Serbia also won the last year match on the Grand Prix.

Furthermore, in competition format like this one, fatigue factor is one of the most important things to consider when place bets. Namely, week after week we have pools of 4 teams competing on different parts of the globe. Here we have now USA, Serbia, Argentina and South Korea facing each other in Argentina as the host of this group.

Where USA and Serbia have played the last time? Serbia was in group in Europe and played together with host Netherlands, Italy and Dominic Republic. The last match there Serbia played five days ago.

In the same time USA was in China and played together with host, Brazil and Russia. USA was impressive and won all games there but only against Russia covered this big handicap.

Also, clearly coming from China, USA had tougher task to adapt for only five days on the new time zone than Serbia had coming from Europe.

By the stats, Serbia will have in this game the best player on the court. It's Tijana Bošković from whom I expect another huge game.

IMO Serbia can win set here. So, Serbia +2.5 sets, Over 3.5 sets, Over points, all those should be the winning options. Still, I opted for Serbia in points handicap. I like this high handicap cause I feel even straight sets result in favor of USA, could bring us profit on this Serbia +16.5 pts.

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Serbia vs USA prediction

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Serbia +16.5 pts Bet365 1.72 8 103-91 WON (+5.76 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
+9 -2
Comments (3)
Giuseppe
I really like your previews, very detailed and reasonable bets. Be careful on this one, I'm gonna skip this or considering betting small stake on USA 3-0 or Usa -15.5pts, here is why: last time that Serbia won, they were favourite to do so (1.36) and the match before they were @ 3.25 before market movement, dropped to 2.62 and they won.

I don't know anything on this matches, but I like to follow a general rule of thumb: bookies don't make mistakes.

So this time we have serbia to win @ 5 before market movement, increased to 6.50 currently. I like to compare odds from past head to head before market movement.

So Serbia won @ 3.25, then won @ 1.36, now they were listed @ 5. So is the bookie gone mad? I don't think so. The bookie is telling us USA will win big. But why?

Based on your preview, I think you didn't consider the revenge factor: USA should be eager to play Serbia, to take revenge from last 2 matches. They are already qualified so they have no pressure, but since they want revenge they're gonna play very seriously. Meanwhile Serbia isn't qualified yet, but as you said fatigue is an important factor and they shouldn't put much effort trying to beat or cope with a blood seeker USA team.

So for me 3-0 USA looks pretty good, same USA -16.5 (better original handicap -13.5 live if you can)

I will play low stake though, be careful on this match :-)
06/12/2018 - 14:19
Paul
Bookies overrated USA in this match,listen to the tipster Giuseppe, Serbia is not so big underdog here,tip is very good.
06/12/2018 - 18:57
hans
Serbia won outright. NICE PICK!

hans
06/12/2018 - 22:58
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