Orgryte vs Varnamo
9th round in Swedish Superettan and the leaders Orgryte host the second weakest in the table Varnamo.
The difference between these two clubs in the start of the season is too big. Hosts are with max points at home and goals difference 7:2, so it won't be any problem to score against the second poorest away team, which won 1 point from 4 matches and their goal difference is 1:8.
The home team don't have any problems scoring goals with 3 wins 2:1 3:1 2:0 at home, so that I chose to play something risky, but I won't miss it- home team win with -1.5 AH. They covered it twice till now from the start of the season against teams higher in the table. The last match, when Orgryte were hosts(H2H), finished 2:0 with two fast goals in the first 10 minutes. Everything looks to be with the home side to win comfortable here. The odds are moving against the hosts, which is strange to me, when its about teams with such a big difference in their performance. This time I think it's totally wrong and even if the hosts make a few changes here, although I don't expect them to underestimate the opponent and the match, they can cover still the handicap. I don't have much info about injured or suspended players except Rafael York(MF)-Varnamo, who is suspended.
In comparison witht the last season, this year Orgryte perform amazingly different and take the first position. I like teams which are entirely made of home players. I will go with the home side and expect them to win 3:1 or 2:0, that's the reason to choose -1.5 AH. If you want to play safer, just go with a home win or -1AH with odds about 2.00.
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Orgryte vs Varnamo prediction
|Orgryte -1.5 AH||Bet365||2.67||9||4-0 WON (+15.03 units)|