Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce
Euroleague final 4, Belgrade, Serbia, Final game
In semifinal games, Fenerbahce as expected won against Zalgiris while Real Madrid made small surprise by beating the No.1 team from regular season, team of CSKA Moscow.
Game between CSKA and Real was real offensive clash (83:92), especially from Spanish team. But IMO they can hardly repeat something like that against Fenerbahce.
CSKA "agreed" to play one realy fast tempo, with plenty running and such run the floor type of game perfectly suits to Real. I don't think today's finals will be similar game. It's well known Fenerbahce is the No.1 defensive team in Euroleague and IMO coach Obradović won't allow to this finals turn out to be another shooting festival.
By the initial offer, Fenerbahce was a few points favorite while right now we have 50-50 situation. I think these current odds on Fenerbahce are more than generous. I just don't see where Real has advantage.
Yes, Real probably has the best player on the floor in face of Luka Dončić (probably top 3 pick on the next NBA draft) but is it enough to beat the defending champions? I don't think so.
Real was in big injury problems for entire season. Now this situation is much better but I still think this is not the best Real. Let's start from the above mentioned Dončić. In the semis he has scored 16 pts (the most in the Real team together with Sergio Llull) but it wasn't exactly too great performance from him.
Namely almost half have been free throw points while from the field Luka went only 4 from 12 (quite modest 33%). He had problem with injury late in regular season and seems to me this is far below from the level he was during European championship when his Slovenia won the gold.
Furthermore, the mentioned Llull is also one of best players in the Spanish team. But he has missed most of the season, came back just at the end of regular sesson and although he was solid in the semifinals, I doubt he can play straight high quality games in such short period.
For entire season Real was very weakened on the centar position. Now situation is better with Gustavo Ayon playing for a while but Kuzmić who was planned for this sesson to be big addition in the paint, never came back after injury. Real of course has also Tavares but while he is on the floor, it's big disadvantage for the Spanish team cause opponents rapidly send him on the free throw line while he just can't hit those.
Fenerbahce on the other side seems to me as more compact team. Željko Obradović very nicely shared the minutes in the semifinals. Some very important players were without too much spent time on the floor. It's the indicator how deep roster this is. The truth is Fenerbahce is without two important players from season ago when they won the Euroleague (they both moved to NBA). But Obradović again made very strong roster that IMO is the best in Europe.
As for Obradović himself, he without any doubt is the best coach in Euroleague. The guy is going for his 10th title of Euroleague champion while previous nine he has won with five different teams. So, if you want the title, hire Željko Obradović.
In the regular season Real Madrid and Fenerbahce split the two mutual meetings. What was interesting is the fact both teams won on the road. But when it comes to overall success of playing away from home, Fenerbahce's 11-4 was far better from Real's 8-7.
Plus note this game in some hand is more a road game only for Real Madrid while Fenerbahce can feel here like at home. Namely, amazing number of Turkish fans arrived to Serbia and team in the SF had great support like they play in Istanbul. On the other side there are almost no Spanish fans.
Also note that for a few Fenerbahce players playing in Belgrade Arena is like playing at home. Namely Marko Gudurić and Nikola Kalinić played for Crvena zvezda while Jan Vesely in early days before NBA played for Partizan. All of them played many big games in Belgrade Arena and yes we can say for them this is a home floor.
Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce prediction
|Fenerbahce win||Bet365||1.95||8||85-80 LOST (-8 units)|