Buducnost vs Crvena zvezda
One more excellent basketball game today. Beside Eurocup Game 2 playoffs finals, we have also this ABA playoffs finals - Game 3.
In Podgorica, the capital of Montenegro, Buducnost will host Serbian team Crvena zvezda. It's best of five series while currently we are tied on one win each after two games played in Belgrade.
Unlike Darussafaka Lokomotiv series where I unfortunately lost my bet on Game 1, here in meeting between Buducnost and Zvezda, I had both winners in the two first games, as a matter fact those have been pretty easy calls.
In Game 1 I took Buducnost as +8.5 pts underdog, before the match it was only 6.5 but in any case, Buducnost was way underrated and they not just covered but also won the opening game, 76:80.
In Game 2 I was leaning towards Crvena zvezda but that was opinion of most of the bettors so the line easily moved and we had even bigger handicap than in Game 1. That's why I opted for under the totals in second game. CZ at the end won with 10 pts difference and covered in any case, but it was sweet win for me on under, 69:59 so never a doubt. That game 2 was right next day after opening match so fatigue factor was crucial in my under choice.
Now we are in Podgorica for the third and fourth match. And to be honest, I am more than surprised to see odds for Game 3. I mean, my handicapping for this game was a few points CZ as underdog and then to look for best option depending how different bookies opinion would be. And their opinion is CZ one point favorite or pk game.
I just can't agree with that and have no other choice than to go with Buducnost.
I wonder sometimes whether those guys (oddsmakers) even watch the sport. Probably not. Particularly here, they see CZ was No. 1 in regular season, CZ is Euroleague participant and they simply too easily underrate Buducnost.
But the real picture from my point of view is like this:
CZ is nowhere near to last season. Back then they easily won domestic trophies and ABA, while in Euroleague they barely missed the playoffs, finished just below the line and with one win short.
But now the roster is pretty much changed. I mean those are very good players but obviously they needed time to fit everything. And IMO they failed to do so, I mean the new coach failed. I was talking about that entire season, CZ has rookie coach and that is going to be a problem. Radonjic left at the end of last season, while this new guy Alimpijevic is simply without enough experience.
With him, Crvena zvezda already lost one trophy (Serbian Cup) while in Euroleague they were nowhere close to playoffs like season ago. The things didn't work well either in ABA. Buducnost was a leader most of the time and only late in the season CZ earned No. 1 spot when Buducnost has lost even three of the final five games. But note Buducnost has won both mutual meetings in the regular season. Back then game played in Podgorica was really amazing performance from Buducnost who was shooting the ball outstanding.
This team really counts on home court advantage. They are without loss at home entire season in ABA. Plus, Zvezda traditionally rarely wins in Podgorica.
I already mentioned how CZ is not dominant like season ago while it should be noted Buducnost improved a lot. The host really has quality players, as when it comes to foreign players as well when it comes to the guys from ex Yug region. Plus, Aleksandar Dzikic, the head coach, IMO is doing great job and compared with young Alimpijevic on the other side, it's in fact big mismatch.
I am sorry to say, but I have feeling Dzikic will "eat" Alimpijevic alive in this Game 3.
Plus, it should be mentioned that Alimpijevic at one point of the season completely lost control over the players. It was at time when there were rummors about conflict between him on one side and captain Branko Lazic and the most experienced Pero Antic on the other side.
Buducnost was complete in this series, though important guy Ivanovic has played practically without training. But by the Dzikic words, Ivanovic is fully ready now. BTW, Ivanovic already was excellent in first two games no matter he wasn't 100% fit.
As for CZ, the Serbian team was without Dangubic and Antic. The first one is long term absence while experienced Antic traveled with the team to Montenegro but I really doubt he can play (foot injury).
For end, not too important but maybe worth mentioning, referees. There was typical talk about referees. Mainly from CZ. IMO there were few mistakes here and there in first two games but on both sides. Complaining on the refs has become regular here, all in the aim to make pressure on them.
All in all, I don't think refs decided anything in first two games but if there is some truth in that, then looking the names of the referees for Game 3 (Javor, Hordov, Majkic), I see even more reasons t
Buducnost vs Crvena zvezda prediction
|Buducnost||Unibet||2.06||10||78-77 WON (+10.6 units)|