Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings
Game: Portland - Sacramento
Bet: Damian Lillard over 23.5
Blazers are hosting Kings on Wednesday.
Portland is a team with playoff aspirations and their best player is one of the best PG in the league Damian Lillard. They play fast pace basketball with lots of points, as they rank top 10 in pace (9th; 102.94), top 10 in points allowed (8th; 114.8) and points scored (10th; 112.8). They are playing bellow expectations this season with a 8-13 record, and will need to start winning some games or risk falling out of the playoff hunt. To do so their big guns will have to play better.
Lillard is having a somewhat disappointing season by his standards, especially recently with 21.4 ppg in his last 5 games. He started the season very well, so he is still averaging 26.7 ppg on the season. As of late he had some trouble with a back injury which might have been the reason for worse performances, but recent reports says that it doesn't bother him that much anymore. Another thing why his scoring is perhaps a bit down is the signing of Carmelo Anthony who took some shots away from him, but I'm not too concerned about this especially in this game where Anthony should have a tougher time against Barnes.
There are a few reasons for me making this bet. First of all, a player of Lillards calibre should have a much higher line than 23.5. Yesterday his line was 24.5 against the Clippers, whose defense is really good, especially against first scoring options. He did score just 16 points against them, but that shouldn't be the reason to lower his line against an inferior defense like the one Kings have. Second, his underlying stats are great for this bet. He is scoring 31.3 ppg at home, compared to just 24.1 on the road. He is also scoring 32.3 ppg this season in games with 0 day rest (b2b games). And last but not least, he seems to like playings against the Kings. In two meetings with them this year he scored 35 and 27 points (both games were on the road). Also last year he scored 25 and 35 in two games against them (also both on the road).
Sacramento plays with the slowest pace in the league, which results in them having, statistically speaking, one of the better defenses in the league. But I really can't see who can stop Lillard tonight. They are still playing without Fox and Bagley, but are playing well and should be competitive through out the game, so we will hopefully avoid a blowout.
Given everything written above, I really like this bet. If there wouldn't be any injury concerns I would try with a max stake, but in this circumstences I recommend medium stake.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings prediction
Damian Lillard over 23.5Odds: 1.83 at Bet365
Result: 24 WON (+6.64 units)
The betting odds are from the time when the article was published and are subject to change. Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings betting tips and match preview represents the personal opinion of the author (JuanSebastianVeron). The predictions are verified and provided in good faith, but no earnings are guaranteed. Please play responsibly.