My next pick is from the Champions League (CL) fixture between FC Barcelona as host and Lyon as visitors
Barcelona won their last 11 Round of 16 home matches, and are unbeaten at home for 29 CL games (W26, D3) – 21 wins were by a 2+ goal margin. The host are strong at home, and have lead 1-0 at half-time, in all their home CL matches this campaign, are unbeaten in 12 matches in all competitions (W9, D3 – ), and have not failed to score at home for the past 13 months.
The first leg that ended 0-0 between these 2 teams, was Lyon's only clean sheet recent 9 competitive matches (W5, D2, L2), and also their first in the CL this season. They visitors have lost every UEFA tie where they drew a home first leg (L8), although they are unbeaten in their last five CL road trips (W2, D3). Lyon, will enter into this fixture knowing, they are viewed as underdogs, and will be determined to maintain formation that is for the first half going to be targeted at keeping Barcelona away from the coresheet.
From Ligue-1 campaigns, 60.47% of match goals scored in Lyon’s away games arrived after the 60th minute, and I expect more goals to follow in the second half of this fixture, as the visitors are expected to start with a compact formation and aim to secure goals from counter attacks. There is thus the likelihood that if Barcelona secure a 1st half goal, the host will come out in the 2nd half to play for the chance for a goal to stay in the competition.
If Lyon scores first, or Barcelona fails to kill off the match in first half with 2 or more goals, or if no goals are scored in the 1st half, then I expect there will be change in formation for both teams entering the 2nd half, the changes will make it easier for mistakes to cause chances that allow more goals that both teams will come out for a a winner.
In view that 3 of the last 5 matches have scored over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half, and with the observed upsets we recorded in the CL this season and this stage so far, I will prefer to go for goals, rather than a handicap (0-2) win the hosts. My prediction is 2nd half over 1.5
Barcelona vs Lyon betting tips
2nd Half Ov 1.5 (Stake: 10)Odds: 1.57 at Bet365
Result: 5-1 WON (+5.7 units)