The match in French Ligue 2 between Metz and Sochaux is interesting for consideration.
This is an interesting match between the top ranked team playing at home (W17, D6, L4), against a team in the 18th position (W7, D4, L16) playing away, and trying to avoid relegation with 11 matches to go this season. The visitors play strong possession football, but have a trouble finishing off the chances they create up front, hence they have lost against teams in the league where they had superior ball possession like in the reverse fixture of this match where they had 52%, and 1 shot at the opponents goal, despite playing with an additional man after the Metz had a man sent off since the 1st half.
The host on the other hand, are very different in their style of play, with a more direct approach, focused on direct advancement forward, when they have the ball, and shooting to score whenever the opportunity can be secured. The host are often down in possession statistics, even for matches they win with 2 goal margin, like against Paris FC in the last round.
The hosts may have to change their usual strategy of direct attack, as the possession style of football will limit opportunities for direct assault from the first half, as they have done previously in 7 of past 14 matches this season, where they secured a 1st half win. I expect a low scoring 1st half, against today's visitors who have only conceded 4 of the such 1st half goals in fixtures where they played away.
The host (w3, D3) are yet to drop a point against teams outside of the top 10 in their last 6 fixtures, and I expect they will fight for all 3pts today. The visitors (W1, D1, L4) have only secured 1 point from a team in the top 10, and have been very poor of late. The visitors have scored 2 goals, and conceded 4 in the first half for all of the 14 matches played away, with 5 goals scored, and 14 conceded in the 2nd half. The hosts, have a record of 8/2 goals scored/conceded in the first half, against 16/5 goals scored/conceded in the 2nd half for the past 14 Ligue-2 matches played this season.
In view I am not expecting many goals from this fixture, I go for Home & Un 2.5. Good Luck!
Metz vs Sochaux betting tips
Home & Un 2.5 (Stake: 10)Odds: 2.40 at Bet365
Result: 1-1 LOST (-10 units)