My match pick from the Frence Ligue 1 between Marseille and Saint-Etienne is a home win.
Both teams have had an average performance for the host (W3, D1, L2) and visitors (W2, D1, L3), where both teams current sit on 6th and 4th on the league table. Marseille were hoping to go a step higher to Champions league football this season by filling the vacant spot left by poor performing Monaco, and currently occupied by Lille, but their own performance issues have seen them struggling to compete for their previous spot for 4th place to go to the Europa league.
To get to the Europa league spot, the host need to over come their current rival in today's fixture, and then subsequently avoid dropping more points than their nearest 4 rivals who all stand at 43, 42, 40 and 38 pts. The hosts have scored in each of their recent 6 fixtures while keeping a clean sheet in 2 of them, to achieve a goal scored/conceded ratio of 8/6, while the visitors failed to score in 2, and kept a clean sheet in 1 of their recent 6 fixtures to have a ratio of 5/8 goals for/against.
In view this match is a winner takes all affair, I expect to see more goals than the average in matches between these 2 teams and other opponents, so a bet for Ov 2.5 may be in order, though a bit more risky, than a direct win. I expect the winning margin for this match to be a single goal in favour of the home team, seeing they have a better goal scoring/conceding average of 1.83/0.75 compared to the visitors 0.92/1.54 averages.
In view that the hosts two recent losses were in matches with teams that conceded less than 1.0 goal average, as compared to the visitors loss to teams with 1.15 and 1.30 goals conceded averages scoring only one goal in both fixtures combined, and retaining an average of 0.75 goals scored in their last 4 matches; To win today, the will be patient, and tactical to seek and exploit weaknesses in the defence of the visitors, noting; the visitors will be relying more on counter-attack because their forward line lack the creativity to breakdown an organised defence.
Because the visitors are comfortable with a draw scoreline, they are likely to lack the initiative and creativity going forward, and may concede goal while seating deep to lose by a slim margin (1 - 0, say). In view of their weak attack, if the visitors concede an early goal, and abandon their game plan to seek for an equalizer it will cause them to be open to more goals from counter attacks.
Marseille vs Saint Etienne betting tips
Home (Stake: 8)Odds: 1.88 at Bet365
Result: 2-0 WON (+7.04 units)