My 4th match pick for today is from Argentina Superliga between Racing Club and Estudiantes.
These are two clubs with differing trends of fortunes, with the Host being at the top of the Superliga table and enjoying a beautiful position at the top of the form and goal scoring tables, while the visitors are ranked 23rd amongst 26 teams on the form table, and are 19th on the scoring tables, and 18th on the overall table as well.
The Host have just crashed out of Copa Sudamericana after losing a hard fought match on penalties to Corinthians of Brazil in a match in which they lost a 1st half lead to end on 1 - 1 after previously securing the crucial away goal from a similar 1- 1 scoreline in Brazil, in another match where they also lost the first half lead and ended in a draw. It is suffice to say that the hosts are feeling very angry with themselves, and know that their fans will demand for an immediate response to ease the grief of the loss on penalties that saw them crash out of the Copasudamericana.
I expect that with the host fully focused on the league at this point, and a need to appease their fans for the recent events, they will come out blazing against the visitors from the first half, and secure an early lead, as they have done in 60% of their home matches this season. The visitors with their current poor form, should not be difficult to score against in the first half seeing they have previously lost 40% of their 1st half fixtures against less formidable teams than the current league leaders.
The hosts are in good form scoring 13 and conceding 5 goals in the recent 8 fixtures, while the visitors have conceded 9 goals and scored 4 in 8 of their more recent home and away fixtures combined as well. The hosts have conceded 1 and scored 7 in theri recent four home matches (W3, D1), while the visitors have conceded 8 and scored 3 in their recent 4 away fixtures.
There is thus a problem with the visitors defence and attack, while the home team has a very good attack and defence status judging from recent performances. The hosts are missing a key defender by name Orban Lucas, but they have other equally capable replacements and will not be troubled much by the poor attack capabilities of the visitors. The visitors on the other hand will miss Pelegrini Matias who is similar replaced by other team mates with equivalent or better playing time.
The outcome of this match can thus be expected to reflect the way both teams have performed against similar oponents in the league this season, and I give the outcome to the host in an expected 1st-half and full-time victory. Home/Home is my prediction for this match.
Racing Club vs Estudiantes LP betting tips
Home/Home (Stake: 8)Odds: 2.20 at Bet365
Result: 1-0 WON (+9.6 units)