My 3rd pick for today is from Germany - Regionalliga Nord between TSV Havelse and Wolfsburg B
The match is between a team that is 3rd from the bottom, with a recent average run of form (W2, D1, L3), hosting a team that is at the very top of the league playing away and with a very good run of form (W6, D1). The odds for an away victory appear to be very good @ 1.76 in view that both victories for the home team came with slim margins of 1 -0, and that the host have failed to score in 3 of the past six matches, and conceded one goal each in four of their matches to aggregate 3 goals for and 4 goals against. In comparison, the visitors have scored 15 and conceded 5 goals in their last 6 matches.
The class difference between both teams extend beyond the season summary so far, into the current form table where the hosts are mid table with 10pts from 8 matches, while the visitors have dropped points in just 1 game with a recorded draw, while winning the other 7 matches.
The Visitors are still better when defensive performances are compared, as they average 0.91 goals per match against the host average of 1.42 goals conceded per match played. The consistency in the performance of the attack of the 2 teams show the host as having 1.33 goals scored over the course of the season, showing that the recent poor attacking form of 0.5 goals per match is reflective of a decline in attacking prowess, and that the 7pts they secured from their recent 6 matches is more a statement on possible improvement in their defence to 0.67goals per match from the season average. My summary of the recent improvement in host performance, is that it reflects more on the quality of their opposition, rather than a statement of improvement in their performance.
On the other hand, the visitors have a recent 2.5 goals scored average against a season average of 2.27 goals scored, and a recent average of 0.83 goals conceded against a season average of 0.91, which again shows a slight improvement in both defence, and attack, while the same high level of performance for both defence and attack, as they have shown in previous matches against.
I will go with a direct away win, in view of uncertainty about the host scoring any goal, whil I remain convinced that the visitors will score 2 or more goals in this fixture.
Tsv Havelse vs VfL Wolfsburg II betting tips
Away (Stake: 8)Odds: 1.76 at Bet365
Result: 1-2 WON (+6.08 units)