My 2nd match pick for today is from the German 2-Bundesliga between FC Ingolstadt vs FC Köln.
The host are 2nd from the bottom of the league table with 19pts, while the visitors are at the very top of league table with 45pts after both teams have played 23 matches each. Both visitors and host are on a similar run of form winning 3 matches and losing 3 from the recent 6 matches played (3-Home, 3-Away). While the hosts have scored 7 goals, and conceded 5 from their last 6 matches, the visitors have scored 12 and conceded 10 goals from their past 6 matches, making it a goals' fest over over3.5 goals on average.
The only times the visitors failed to secure over 2.5 goals in their recent fixtures were in games where the teams were in the top 30% of best defensive teams in the league. The host has scored in 4 of their recent 6 fixtures, and average a goal scored per game, while the visitors average 2 goals scored per game in all fixtures in the league this season. The visitors scored in all but one of their recent 6, while the hosts failed to score in 2 of the last 6 matches played.
The capability difference in both teams is masked by the recent similarity in their forms (W3, L3), that is the reason a direct win for the visitors still attracts such a big odd. I am confident of the Away victory, in view 2 of their 3 losses came from team deeply eated in the top half of the table with one loss to a mid table team, as against the host that won their 3 matches agaonst mid table teams, and lost their only match against a team in the top half of the table.
In view that 3 of the last 4 encounters of both teams in this fixture has seen BTTS, I expect the visitors to win by scoring 2 or more goals, and expect that the host will fight back, and nick a goal against the run of play.
I will go for Away & Ov 2.5 as a prediction for this match.
Ingolstadt vs Koln betting tips
Away & BTTS (Stake: 8)Odds: 2.60 at Bet365
Result: 1-2 WON (+12.8 units)