My first match pick for the day, is from the French National League. It's the match between Chambly (No.1), and Bourg Peronnas (No. 11) on the league table. Traditionally, this is a low scoring league, where for this match, the Under 3.5 is usually, 1.15 odds, and the Home win is 2.09 odds. I thus consider it great bet to find a match between the best team in the league @ 48pts from 23 matches, and the 11th placed team @ 28pts from 22 matches, where the ods of the home team win is a good 2odds.
A closer look at the form of the two teams gives a picture why the odds for a Home win are higher than is expected, and the reason to me is found in the recent good form (W3, D2, L1) of the way team, as compared with the home team (W4, D1, L1). At a glance it looks like the teams are very well matched, but a closer look at the position of their opponents in the referenced fixtures show that visitors have had a good set of games; winning three home matches against a bottom table team (Marignane), a mid table team (Cholet), and a top table team (Laval), while drawing two away matches against the last two teams in the League (Entente, & Drancy), and losing against the only top table team they played away (Boulogne) in their very last game.
Today's host have scored in 11 consecutive home matches, of which they have won the last 6 matches consecutively played at home, and are undefeated in the last 13 matches played at home as well. The visitors who are ranked 15th amongst the 18 teams on the away table, and have before now only secured 7 points from the last 10 matches played away, are going to be over tasked to get a point away from the home team who up till now have secured 30 points from the last 12 home matches with only points dropped coming from 3 draws at home this season.
The host team are very strong at home, as indicated from the results of their recent 4 matches (W4) with total of 8 goals scored, and one goal conceded, while the visitors are expected to be weak playing away, having scored 3 goals, and conceded 6 from their recent four matches (D2, L2).
With average goals scored of 1.92 against 0.70 goals for the home and away teams, and goals conceded of 0.58 and 1.20 for the home and away teams, measured against league average goal scored of 1.17 and 0.83 for the home and away teams respective, I expect the match to end with the Home team scoring 2 goals and conceding none to make Under 2.5 goals scored. I am however going with the Under 3.5 goals option to give tolerance for any defensive errors from the host team.
My Pick for the match is Home & Under 3.5 @ 2.50 Odds.
Chambly vs Bourg Peronnas betting tips
Home & Un 3.5 (Stake: 8)Odds: 2.50 at Bet365
Result: Rule #17 PUSH (Stake return)