Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics by FairPlayBet
Seems that Celtics will have poor chances in this series, every win for them would be big success. Heat convinced us that they are too strong at this moment, even when they are without Cris Bosh on the floor.
Still, tonight's game could be much closer than first one. Reason is fact that before game 1, Celtics had very little time to rest after seven games series with 76ers. On the other hand, Miami entered to game 1 after 4-5 days of rest. And we could see tiredness of Celtics, they had 46-46 at half time, but still lost convincingly at the end. So, tonight should be different, but I am not willing to bet against Miami Heat, at least not at this point. IMO the best is to skip betting on winner in second game and to take some of the Propositions bets from Pinnacle. I found this very tempting bet on Kevin Garnett to score more than 18.5 points.
In pick for 7th game between Celtics and 76ers I have already talked about Kevin Garnett.
This player who is already veteran is not any more on the same level as when he was the main power of Minnesota Timberwolves or as he was in his first years with Boston Celtics. Still, in this post-seaspn his stats are much better.
This player was the main power of Celtics in many post-season games. His play-off stats (19.5 pts, 10.7rebounds) were much better than in regular season (15.8, 8.2). In opening game with Miami Heat, Garnett was even better (23 points and 10 rebounds). Also note that Celtics scored only 79 points, while tonight it is expected to they will be better.
Besides undoubtedly good form of Kevin Garnett, one of reasons why I believe that he will cover this line tonight is fact that Miami is still without Cris Bosh. That he is in the team, Bosh would be in charged to stop Garnett. But without Bosh it is obvious advantage for Celtics on this position.
For end one more interesting fact that gives me the right to think that this is really great value. Garnett used on best possible way absence of Bosh and scored 23 in game 1, but note that because of the early decided game, Garnett was on the court only 31 min, which was even ten minutes less than in some games with 76ers, and almost six minutes less from his average in this post-season. If Celtics stay close tonight longer than in first game (what I expect), than also Garnett will have more minutes on the floor than in opening game.
I was very suprised to see this 18.5 line for him at Pinnacle, especially since this are not some low odds but very decent 1.90. Also note than odds already started to drop on this choice. When I started to write this preview, odds were 2.02.
|Kevin Garnett: over 18.5 points||Pinnacle||1.90||7||18 LOST (-7 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.