Djokovic vs Nadal by FairPlayBet
Surface - Clay court
Novak Djokovic (SER) - Rafael Nadal (SPA)
(1) ranking (2)
12670 points 9215
(14) previous meetings (16)
I will skip this time betting on winner of this match and I have more reasons for this. First, Novak was not on his best level during this couple last days, so I have no confidence in betting on him against Nadal at this point. On the other hand, I can't bet on Nadal either. I mean how someone can put money on Nadal against Djokovic on this miserable non value odds of 1.70 when Nadal himself probably does not remember when was the last time when he defeated Djokovic. The only reason why Nadal is defending champion here in Monte Carlo is fact that Djokovic missed this tournament in 2011.
So, about winner it's no bet for me. But I found this interesting bet, which player will have more aces during the match. My choice is Novak Djokovic (-0.5). Novak is better service player than Nadal and also he is far better on return. After all, Novak is the world best when we are talking about return. So I doubt that Rafa can make it too many aces against world no.1.
Now let's look on stats from previous rounds:
Novak Djokovic had 17 aces in four matches played (4.25 per match) while Rafael Nadal only 13 in same number of matches (3.25 per match). Note that Djokovic was more on the court. Two times he had to play third set (Dolgopolov and Berdych), but this does not change much. Looking through the service games played Novak had 0.38 while Nadal 0.36 aces per game.
Djokovic was by far successful on return. Both have allowed only 8 aces in total to their oponents (2 per match) but looking through the return games played, Novak was better since he has allowed 0.19 while Nadal 0.22 aces per game. Novak has played 42 return games, while Rafa only 36.
Also note that against strong service players like Haase or Berdych, Djokovic allowed only 3 aces (Haase 0, Berdych 3) while Nadal against his two strong oponents (Wawrinka and Simon) allowed even 7.
Of course all this stats does not have to mean anything, but still it is a fact that Djokovic is slightly better on serv and much better player than Nadal on return.
|Most Aces: Djokovic (-0.5)||Unibet||1.87||9||0-3 LOST (-9 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.