Villarreal vs Real Madrid by Jamesington

Villarreal
VS
Real-Madrid
After a very positive start to the month which saw my picks in profit the last weeks has seen a deterioration in performance due to some disappointing and surprising results so for the next few days I will be implementing a high input, positive output strategy requiring a slightly more commited staking plan for a potentially very profitable return. Some of the stakes will be high at high odds as they seem to be prices which do not fairly reflect the likelihood of an outcome and therefore I feel we should take advantage of the prices. Hopefully after a few days of this staking plan we will be back in positive figures and able to start back on a more placid, calm staking plan.

Okay, in this match there are a number of selections I have highlighted as good value and one which I feel we should put on as an insurance policy for the others in case they fail, so we still make a profit.

Insurance policy first, 4pts at 2.875 on REAL MADRID TO BE WINNING AT HALF TIME AND FULL TIME (as they have done in their last FIVE away La Liga matches). This will guarantee as a small profit even if none of the other picks come off - though if they are successful also then we can expect a big return.

It is important to recognise that Barcelona have won La Liga and the season is finished in terms of positions - Real are 2nd, Villareal are more than likely to come fourth. Real are now simply playing for pride and to show that they are as good as their Catalan rivals - through scoring as many goals as them. In their last three away matches Real have scored a total of 15 goals (including six against Valencia and then Sevilla - two of the hardest teams to beat in La Liga). With that statistic in mind I would recommend REAL TO SCORE MORE THAN 3 GOALS at odds of 7.5 with Blue Square, 2pts.

Then there is the question of who will score all these goals. There is one real answer, it starts with 'C' and ends with 'ristiano Ronaldo'.

Ronaldo has scored seven goals in his last two matches and is good value to grab a brace again at odds of 4/1 (5.0 in decimal) with William Hill, 2pts. Given that he has also actually scored a hat-trick in both of those two matches it bemuses me somewhat that he is still 16/1 (17.0 in decimal) to get three goals so have 1pt on him with BlueSq.

Another player who has really started finding his shooting boots of late is Kaka (remember him?) who has five goals in Madrid's last three away league matches. The Brazilian is good value to net a couple in El Madrigal (1pt @ 15.0 with BlueSq).

Staking Plan:

Ronaldo Two Goals or More

2pts @ 5.0 with William Hill

Ronaldo Hat-trick

1pt @ 17.0 with BlueSq

Kaka Two Goals or More

1pt @ 15.0 with BlueSq

Real Madrid to score more than 3 goals

2pts @ 7.5 with Blue Sq

Real Madrid winning at HT/FT

4pts @ 2.875 with BlueSq

$200 Bonus

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Real HT/FT - Real Madrid over 3 goals - Ronaldo/Kaka to score 2 or more - Ronal Bet365 2.55 10 1-3 WON (+15.5 units)
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