Federer vs Gulbis by Beatle

Tip based on Asian handicap. Not familiar with handicaps? Read our Asian handicap betting guide
Gulbis had +4.5 handicap in the Rome and played great there. We all remember his archievement two weeks ago, but what about this week ? Some people ( experts ) are saying that he is not playing that great in Madrid but I say that Ernests is red hot and his serve is simply incredible. Lopez was crushed yesterday by 6 games, Youzhny by 3 (2nd round) and Montanes by 7 (1st round). What was indifferent in first two matches : Ernests failed to start the match strongly and without problems. He was trailing Montanes by one break in the first set, than Montanes served for the set at 5-4 and suddenly lost his serve almost to love. In the second set it was too easy for Gulbis. Now, second match against Youzhny. Once again, underperforming in the start of the first set, crushing Youzhny in the tie-break and winning the second set by 1 break.

Completely different story with Lopez. He breaked his twice in the first set, one more time in the second. Lopez didn't know what to do. Ernests shows great performance against players that he used to play already in the past. Yes, he lost to Federer in Doha, but then he returned to play him once again in Rome and won the match. Yes, he had 0-4 record against Baghdatis, but he walked into 5th match with flying colours and defeated him easily in the 1st round of Rome Masters. What I want to say is that Gulbis in this season is playing great against players, whom he played in the past years. He is overperforming at the moment. His form is unquestionable. I want to you to read all these points below to have the perfect view on tonight's venue and probable outcomes :

Firstly, Gulbis serve is great. He trained his serve couple of months with his new coach Hernan Gumy day-by-day and here are the results. Gulbis can smash the second serve ace when he has enough confidence. Still, he doesn't risk too much when he feels that it's not the right time. Here is the first massive difference between Gulbis of past and today's.

Secondly, He took three days off at home relaxing and doing nothing in the past week and that I think is the perfect explanation why he couldn't concentrate in the first set of first and second match. Now he seems to be OK.

Important facts (!!!) :

1) Gulbis form and his serve is unquetionable, he's red hot at the moment.

2) Federer plays much better tennis here at Madrid comparing to his performance in Rome.

3) Federer WILL do everything to revenge and win tonight. He doesn't want to enter Roland Garros with such weak performance.

4) Gulbis have already guaranteed that he will be seeded for the French Open so his target is completed already and he might lack motivation because of that.

I wrote all these facts for you, so you will have a perfect view on whether to take this bet on or not.

I hope I made my opinion clear and my pick is to take Gulbis with handicap because Gulbis might even win tonight and I thing handicap is a good thing to take.

Best of Luck !

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Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Gulbis +3.5 Bet365 2.00 8 2-1 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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