Gulbis vs Outright Winner by Beatle

Odds of 13.00 before a match against Tsonga. Interesting match tomorrow I must say. Odds are 3.00 at bet365 for Gulbis to win which are ridiculous. Bookies think that Tsonga will win two matches against Gulbis in two weeks. In fact, they think that he will win even more easily tommorow than in Bangkok. Do I think the same way ? No.

I hear people saying that it will be hard for Gulbis. Maybe it will be hard for Tsonga ? Mistake by a line referee in third set and 4-2 in favour of Tsonga back in that Bangkok match. Then Gulbis lost his confidence and lost one more serve... 5-2. The third tie-break ended 7-2 in favour of Tsonga. Before that Ernie won first tie-break and lost the second one. It was a 50/50 game and I don't think that something will change till tomorrow.

I won't pick Gulbis for 3.00. I will write a pick for Gulbis to win the first set for 2.75 instead.

But we have completely different story here. I will take Gulbis for 13.00 at Stan James to win the tournie and that's why...

Sounds ridiculous but if you ask 100 bookmakers what they think about Ernies perespectives in Tokyo, 70 of them will tell that he will lose to Tsonga tomorrow. But will other tell you ? Does he have any opponents AFTER he wins Tsonga here in Tokyo ? I don't think so. Nothing will stop him.

So now let's take a look to other competitors in 1/4.

Hewitt or Roger-Vasselin. Definetely Hewitt but that is not so interesting. Both of them will easily lose to Ernie in final because none of them can resist his powerful serve and forehand.

Second stop - Youzhny or Berdych. Berdych has better serve I must say and he will be a real thread to Ernie in the final I must say. They already played this year and Berdych won that match 6:2 7:6. He will not win that easy if they will play in the final, but he will be a slight favourite for sure.

Now possible opponent in semis.. Monfils and Wawrinka. I think Monfils will win the match and bookies have the same opinion, but it will be a 50/50 in the semis for Gulbis against one of them for sure. Both are very tough opponents. Especially fast and hard-hitting Monfils.

So that's it. Stan James rate Gulbis as the 7th from remaining 8 players to win the title. Are you kidding ? Hewitt with his slow play and much weaker shots stands no chance against in-form hard-hitting Gulbis that bases his play on forehand and serve. Youzhny is also much less consistant at this tournament and I expect him to lose to Gulbis bacause his serve is not so good and he's really inconsistant.

So I rate Gulbis at 8.00 here because I don't rate him of odds @ 3.00 against Tsonga. I think Gulbis is underrated and if he wins Tsonga tomorrow he will be even more confident and it will be easier to qualify for the final.

Against Monaco today he fired only 2 aces. I don't think this will happen tomorrow against Tsonga.

You must think about this pick like about a pick with odds of 13.00. I wrote it in different style, but these odds are worth the bet imo.

Best of Luck !

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Pick Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Gulbis to win Rakuten Japan Open Stan James 13.00 3 1/4 finalist LOST (-3 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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