Liverpool vs Swansea by Marlo

Hi, My name is Marlo aka "the guy who opposes Liverpool on current form".


Just check my last two picks where they entertained Hull and Real Madrid.


The salient points for opposing Liverpool remains the same and this pick adds appeal because the motivation for this is less than the previous games which could have been considered crucial fixtures.


Bookies have wised up and the price on Liverpool continues to drift as they continue to falter. However, they still seem short here, or at the very least, shorter than they should be.


Swansea has shown they are capable of playing at this level and on a given day I see no reason why they can't beat any team in England, including the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City, much less this troubled Liverpool assortment of footballers.


QPR scored twice against their first choice defence. Perhaps, rotation may be a blessing for them here as it gives the others a chance to make an impression and push for places, particularly Lambert who may be given a rare start. However, for the purposes of this pick, feel free to give disinterested Mario a spot up front.


Went back and forth in my head if I want goals or a headstart for Swansea.


Liverpool has won 3 of their last 7 home games this season, and that includes a penalty record shootout win in the previous round.


Swansea with a goal headstart offers considerable appeal. However, I'm thinking given the rotation here, Swansea will need a goal, especially if Liverpool go ahead, this makes the odds of 1/2 for them scoring seem very worthwhile.


Seems best pregame shout and price is very decent.


Good luck.

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Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Swansea over 0.5 goals BetVictor 1.50 10 2-1 WON (+5 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
0 0
Comments (8)
Thats a good bet!! Keep it up
10/28/2014 - 13:22
Value Better '73
Swansea over 1,5 goals (FT) 3,30 at Nordicbet (played yesterday) is much better imo. Many reasons why but one is the last five league cup matches Liverpool has played at home their opponents have scored two or more. Another reason why is Swansea has scored over 1,5 goals (FT) 2/4 away in Premier League this season - vs Man Utd and Chelsea. They should have good possibilities to do it again vs a Liverpool that probably won't put the League Cup high on their priority list. A third reason why is that Swansea has scored over 1,5 goals (FT) in four of their last five League Cup matches.

This on
10/28/2014 - 14:04
Hey Value Better '73

I had a look at over Swansea over 1 goal and over 1.5 goals....Over 1 goal I was initially going to tip @ 2.21 but opted to tip this instead.

I can see over 1.5 goals landing too....Over 1 is better but I didn't want to miss out on 50% profit if they score just once.
10/28/2014 - 15:10
Value Better '73
You should think what is most value long term and not isolate it to each object. It might be I seemed too critical to your tip which wasn't the intention. I agree it is value in 1,50 due to Swansea finds the net, but I definitely disagree with you it is the better choice.

By the way among the three mentioned alternatives I think over 1,0 to 2,21 is the least good alternative.
10/28/2014 - 15:46
Oh and mudhara_9er thanks for the kind words ...keep up the work you're doing too....
10/28/2014 - 16:14
worst bet i've seen. *

easy Liverpool home win@1.8
liverpool scores 2 around 1.7 /both with more more value.

swansea city can beat chelsea and noloseqedisesmas ?
10/28/2014 - 22:07
Took long enough but winner winner chicken dinner
10/29/2014 - 01:22
Always good to get the reasoning right and pick the right angle.
10/29/2014 - 01:54
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