Roma vs Milan by JerryDrake

Pick based on Asian handicap. Not familiar with handicaps? Read our Asian handicap betting guide


Congratulations, Rudi Garcia


Nobody expected Roma to reach the second place this year. Last season was disappointing for Roma but the new French trainer gave his team a perfect structure and organization. Undefeated at home with 14 wins and 3 draws, Roma have the same goal difference as Juventus (+50) and 14 points more than third placed Napoli. With the winning goal scored by Nainggolan in Florence, Roma qualified to the group phase of the Champions League 2014-15.


No turnovers


In my preview “Fiorentina - Roma” I wrote that we can trust Roma because I expected them to fight until the end for the Scudetto. With 8 points behind Juventus I forgot to notice an important detail, the main target for Garcia was to have the mathematical certainty of the Champions League qualification (I gave it for granted with such an advantage over Napoli). For this match with Milan Garcia has decided not to opt for a turnover and he already talked to his players as he wants the highest concentration and determination for all next games. Even so, some players could be less motivated after this long race. Moreover, they know that Juventus will play with Sassuolo and Atalanta.


Five wins for Europe


In her last interview Barbara Berlusconi declared the importance of reaching more financial gains through marketing and products merchandising. As Milan will not play in the Champions League next season, they must at least qualify to Europa League. Milan won 5 in a row and it seems that they want the European spot. At least for their image as no Italian teams like to travel to far countries to play in a small stadium (as it usually happens in the first stages of the EL).


My bet


Roma were much stronger than Milan this year but Milan could (I underline “could”) be more motivated. At the end Roma can win this match without problems but I see a big value in Milan to win this match. They have the same points as Parma but Parma will play with weaker teams, this means that Seedorf must try to win this match in Rome. I bet on Milan with Asian Handicap (“Draw No Bet”), “over 2.5 goals” is also a good option. Correct score: 1-2 Balotelli, Totti, Taarabt


Possible line-ups


Roma (4-3-3): De Sanctis, Maicon, Toloi, Castán, Dodó, Nainggolan, De Rossi, Pjanic, Gervinho, Totti, Ljajic. Trainer: Garcia


Milan (4-2-3-1): Abbiati, Abate, Rami, Mexes, Constant, Muntari, Montolivo, Taarabt, Kaká, Robinho, Balotelli. Trainer: Seedorf


Suspended: Destro (Roma), De Jong (Milan)


Injured: Benatia, Balzaretti, Strootman (Roma), Essien, Honda, Birsa, Cristante (Milan)


Bet: Milan AH, odds: 3.50 Marathonbet, stake: 7/10

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Milan AH Marathonbet 3.50 7 2-0 LOST (-7 units)
0 0
Comments (17)
Whats your call on tonights match between bayern and real?
04/23/2014 - 21:02
04/23/2014 - 21:11
Good call i was surprised to not see your tip on real today
04/24/2014 - 02:15
Thank you. I had no time and I dont like to write not-well-studied and not well-written previews. Anyway ty: you took my attention back to this game and I won the money I lost with Helmond and with Atletico.
04/24/2014 - 02:28
I've always respected your in-depth analysis when it comes to football in general and even more when it comes to Italian leagues, however, I cannot side with you on that one, Jerry. Beating Milan is always very important for us, whether we are playing for something or not...showing these Milanisti that we can outplay them is very important (as it is for us against any Northern team) and losing at home to Milan would be totally unacceptable...not only it would give Juve the Scudetto, but Totti and De Rossi would be devastated and would let their teammates know about it. That being said, I agre
04/25/2014 - 06:42
Good to have the opinions of people who know very well their team. Angelo knows Roma perfectly and good that he reminds me of this aspect. I never meant that Roma will make a present, it is not in their DNA. I just think that there enough value here: Milan fighting for EL, Taarabt is playing well, Balotelli is always a danger. And the dilemma Abate: Milan pushed to see him playing (maybe for his World Cup chances? I prefer De Sciglio): he and others (Montolivo) must show something. Milan have also a particular DNA: they get stronger against strong teams. If I well remember Roma drew 0-0 at hom
04/25/2014 - 12:43
Milan Total Goals Over 1.0, odds: 1.90 Marathonbet
04/25/2014 - 12:46
Angelo, TY. I wrote a long comment but has gone lost (maybe I made something wrong when I selected 'submit comment'). Summary: if you're right I own you a pizza. I still see value o Milan side: Milan get stronger against strong teams. I keep my bet on Milan AH.
04/25/2014 - 13:07
Jerry, you're a great guy and I totally understand what you're saying! Ok for the pizza!

You are right about the 0-0 draw at home vs Inter back in March, however, Totti was not even on the bench for that game and as you know, "No Totti, no party"...and he will start today. Nonetheless, I completely understand what you mean by the value on the Milan DNB as they've been playing much better as of late and a draw is very possible so your wager is protected.

And btw, I also much prefer De Sciglio on la Nazionale over il finocchio ;-)
04/25/2014 - 18:29
Great pick and analysis Jerry, I understand the value of Milan. But me personally pick both team to score & over 2.5 at 2.05.. Good Luck! :)
04/25/2014 - 19:04
0:1 Milan
04/25/2014 - 19:48
Can I ask you where do you get your lineups when it's games not including italian sides?
04/25/2014 - 19:57
@Jerrydrake Abate is playing because De Sciglio had many injuris this season and he just returned from a 3 week injury.If he was fit enough, then he would start at right back.As for your tip i think that Garcia will give a coaching lesson to seedorf and roma will win easily.Milan recent 5 vicories have been against shit opposition bar fiorentina and that vicory was mainly cause of our inside man Matri who couldnt hit a barn door.Hopefully im wrong and Milan wins.Also love your tips!
04/25/2014 - 20:31
Angelo: LOL! Mr.W: GL! Harelce: I hope, Frederico: I search a lot, Milanfan: TY! What happened to Matri? He was a great player with Cagliari, one of the best strikers some years ago! Rami just saved a goal!
04/26/2014 - 00:29
04/26/2014 - 01:10
Wow! I'm really surprised that Milan couldn't even score one. That being said, I'm very happy with the win. I hope Sassuolo will be able to surprise your team next Monday ;-)

So for that pizza Jerry, a nice Margherita will do :-)

04/26/2014 - 01:49
Lol awesome match bro =) I also go to google but sometimes it's really hard to find news and such. I go to the teams website, local newspapers, footbal statistics websites etc...Suspensions are the hardest to find xD

Thank you for this healthy competition in Roma vs Milan preview, this time I got the best of you =P all peace Tiffosi ;)
04/26/2014 - 02:10
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