Bologna vs Parma by JerryDrake

Bologna
VS
Parma
BOLOGNA - PARMA

 

Balanced derby

 

„Derby dell'Emilia“ number 41, the 20th derby with Bologna as home team (H2H in Bologna: 7-7-5, 20/18, H2H overall: 11-17-12, 36/38). The first one they played was in Serie C1 in the season 1983/1984 and the result was 0-0 and the same result happened 2 out of the last 3 derbies: 0-0 in the season 2010/11, 0-0 in the season 2011/12. Last season it was Parma to get the three points by winning 2-1.

 

Dont do me a favour

 

Both teams need point. The Rossoblu risk to relegate as they have 27 points, only 2 more than 18th placed Livorno and 19th placed Sassuolo. Parma have 50 points and in this moment they are fighting with Inter for the 2nd Europa League spot. As there could be a 3rd spot Inter and Parma have good chances to qualify but they must defend their position from Lazio, Verona, Torino and Milan. Bologna will have to look for a victory against a talented and well organized Parma which have already defeated Chievo, Livorno and Sassuolo on the road, i.e. the main opponents of Bologna in the relegation battle.

 

Poor attack

 

Bologna scored 26 goals and conceded 50 in 32 games. Ther average number of goals scored per match is 0.81 goals, the same as Chievo and slightly better than Catania which scored 24 and are hopeless at the bottom of the table with 20 points. These numbers become tragic when we look at the home statistics: Bologna scored only 13 goals out of 16 home games, 4 less than Chievo and even 4 less than Catania. Their topscorer is not a striker but a midfield player: Panagiotis Kone (24/5) followed by strikers Cristaldo (24/4) and Rolando Bianchi (26/3).

 

Strong attack

 

Parma have the best attack in Serie A if we exclude the top 3 Juventus, Roma and Napoli: 52 goals scored out of 32 games (average: 1.625) and the most of them on the road (29 goals in 19 away games: average 1.81, almost 2 goals every away match). Coach Roberto Donadoni will miss his two best scorers today: Antonio Cassano (28/11) and midfield player Marco Parolo (31/8). It will be Amauri (25/6) and Biabiany (30/5) the men in charge.

 

Lunch game menu

 

Even without Cassano and Parolo, the most talented Parma players together with Biabiany, Parma have much more quality than Bologna both in the pitch as in the bench (Palladino and young talent Cerri). They look for a victory always and everywhere and they play with no fear. As they fight for a Europa League place they are favourite in this game as also confirmed by the odds market. Bologna do not seem able to change their way of playing. They find it very difficult to create score chances and when they do, they dont exploit them. Still, they can count on a trainer who is specialized in making points in the months of April and May where his teams usually need to get out of troubles.

 

My bet

 

Parma could have been a good option but it is too risky with odds 2.20-2.30 as their Europa League chances would still be alive even with a draw. Bologna will have to stop Parma attacks and try at least not to suffer a defeat but I dont see how could Bologna get three points here. They know that Chievo will host Livorno and even with a draw they would still have +3 or +2 over Livorno or +1 over Chievo (depending on the result in Livorno). I bet on the draw covered with Parma (Draw „Away No Bet“). This means that my bet is won with a draw, is lost with a home victory and is void with the away victory. I am pretty confident as for me the only possible results for me are X or away win. I try to guess the correct score: 0-0

 

Probable line-ups

 

Bologna: 1 Curci; 5 Antonsson, 14 Natali, 21 Cherubin; 8 Garics, 24 Pazienza, 15 Perez, 19 Christodoulopoulos, 3 Morleo; 33 Kone, 99 Cristaldo. Reserves: Stojanovic, Mantovani, Sorensen, Cech, Crespo, Laxalt, Friberg, Ibson, Moscardelli, Paponi, Bianchi, Acquafresca. Trainer: Ballardini

 

Parma: 83 Mirante; 2 Cassani, 6 Lucarelli, 29 Palett

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
X (Away No Bet) Marathonbet 1.84 10 1-1 WON (+8.4 units)
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