Hoffenheim vs Hamburger by 20legend

Hoffenheim
VS
Hamburger
Hoffenheim are in 13th after a currently bad form lately with 1-2-2 from their last five games. They have got 4-6-8 in total, but their lack of defensive abilities clearly shows in both results and on goal difference. They have let in the highest amount of goals in Bundesliga with 36:42 on goal difference. They lost a clear 4-0 against Nurenberg last weekend and have to produce better today if they are going to get away from the danger of the relegation-spot which is only two points down.

 

The defensive trio Matthieu Delpierre (0/0), Matthias Jaissle (0/0) and Edson Braafheid (0/0) are all suspended throughout the season. Defender Stefan Thesker (2/0) and midfielder Boris Vukcevic (0/0) are both out with injuries. In addition defender Fabian Johnson (13/0) broke a bone in his arm in their last game against Nurenberg and will be missing for some time after his successful operation. Striker Kevin Volland (17/7) is doubtful.

 

Hamburger finds themselves in an even more difficult position as they are in 16th place with 16 points after a total 4-4-10. Their main problem is also very much the defensive part as they have 33:41 on goal difference and the second worst defensive team in the league. Hamburger could not cope with Schalke (0-3) and things are looking very though at the moment as another away game coming up.

 

Defenders Zhi Gin Lam (7/1) and is out with an injury together with midfielder Kerem Demirbay (0/0) and goalkeeper Rene Adler (15/0). Striker Pierre-Michel Lasogga (14/9) is doubtful as he struggles with his thigh muscle strain, while Maximilian Beister (16/5) is out with his long-term injury. This group of players did also miss out on Thursday’s practice session in order to work individually with their recovery. However, defender Johan Djorurou (12/0) will be ready for the game as he returned in to usual practice on Thursday. Midfielder Tomas Rincon (9/0) did also look fit after recovering from his illness and he joined the practice as well.

 

These games have turned out to be involving a lot of goals in the past seasons. Hamburger won the first meeting last season (2-0), and a strong win away from home in the second meeting (1-4). The first meeting this season ended with a surprising win to Hoffenheim (1-5), after a magnificent second half. Both teams are struggling a lot this season and they both have the same problem. Both teams are among the top four teams on the over/under 2,5 goals per match statistics this season, as Hoffenheim is number one with 16/2, and Hamburger is fourth with 13/5. With the two team’s current form, defensive problems and their big need for three points, I cannot see any other outcome than at least three goals today as well. The home team has an average 4,3 goals involved per game, while the visiting team has an average 4,1 goals involved so far. The possibility of over 3,5 goals is another possible outcome here as well, but I choose the over 2,5 goals as a “safer” prediction.

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Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Over 2,5 goals Ladbrokes 1.55 8 3-0 WON (+4.4 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
0 0
Comments (6)
ersan
No, and long, giving the excellent analysis of the Norwegian League
01/30/2014 - 19:53
chelsea
Oh, welcome back! We missed your g8 analysis!
01/31/2014 - 07:57
20legend
Thank you for these kind comments, I really appreciate the feedback:) After a terrible period of picks I decided to take a break, before heading back into the game again. Now, I will focus on beeing much more selective and strict in the analytic work, in order to get things back on track again. Good luck in the future!
01/31/2014 - 14:34
Plies
Welcome back De Legend; u always de guy to follow
01/31/2014 - 16:15
Horia
Welcome back, mate! I often follow your picks, but i don't see value on o/u with such low odds. Just my opinion. Good luck!
02/01/2014 - 13:43
20legend
Thanks guys! I see your point Horia, but it is a good pick to combine with others for example:) Good Luck!
02/01/2014 - 14:50
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