Crotone vs Siena by JerryDrake

For this Monday Night Serie B fixture I wanted to back Siena until some minutes ago. Then I have read that two of the best Siena and former Juventus players have been sold today: Giannetti and Paolucci.


Niccolò Giannetti, 17 appearances and 7 goals scored this season, was in the list of many teams and it has been Catania to succeed in signing him. He has improved a lot in these last months and - no doubt - Siena will miss him.


Michele Paolucci, 18 appearances and 5 goals this season, will probably move soon to Latina. He has not signed yet but he has not been called up by Siena coach Beretta so he will not play in Calabria.


Goalkeeper Lamanna will be back at work as it was Farelli, second goalkeeper, to play in the Italian Cup.


While Crotone had a long break since their last game, Siena have played two matches in Coppa Italia where they won in Catania 4-1 and lost in Florence 1-2 some days ago. In Serie B Siena is the team which have the highest number of draws overall together with Cesena, and the highest on the road with 7 draws out of 10 away games.


If we have a look at the standings, we see Crotone with 32 points (9-5-7, 32/31) at 10th place, only one point behind the playoff zone, and Siena with 27 points (8-10-3, 35/25) but they should have 34 as they had to start with a 7 points penalty.


Siena are 14th, 5 points behind the playoffs and with 4 points advantage over the playouts.


Crotone conceded too many goals at home: 13 goals in 10 games played, and they always conceded at least once in the last 6. Siena have (or had) the best attack with 35 goals and are undefeated since 9 rounds. I wrote "had" because now Beretta will have to find a new player in the attack to join Alessandro Rosina, former player of Torino and Zenit.


All other Serie B fixtures of this round have been played already. For this reason I think that Crotone and Siena will have a look at the standings and be satisfied with a draw.


Crotone would get closer to the playoff while Siena could take time in order to reorganize their attack and wait for next home fixture. They should also be tired because of the energies they spent in Coppa Italia. A home win is not to exclude. I am sure that in the next rounds Siena will start winning also on the road (maybe in Bari and in Terni) but not tomorrow.


I could opt for the home win during the in-play betting when I will see Crotone intentions in the first 20 minutes. For now I back the 11th draw for Siena in this season.


Correct score: 0-0.



Probable line-ups


Crotone (4-3-3): Gomis 20/-31, Del Prete 20/1, Ligi 18/1, Cremonesi 8/0, Mazzotta 19/0, Matute 15/3, Crisetig 18/1, Dezi 18/3, Bernardeschi 18/5, Pettinari 17/4, Bidaoui 19/2. Trainer: Drago


Siena (3-4-3): Lamanna 20/-25, Matheu 5/0, Giacomazzi 18/2, Dellafiore 20/0, Angelo 20/0, Pulzetti 17/5, Valiani 17/0, Feddal 11/0, Rosina 20/6, Rosseti 11/3, Thomas 4/0. Trainer: Beretta


Bet: Draw, odds: 3.20 Unibet, stake: 6/10pin
Pick Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
X Unibet 3.20 6 0-0 WON (+13.2 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
0 0
Comments (10)
Suspended on Crotone side: Cataldi MF 17/1, Ferrari DEF 0/0
Not called up Siena: Grillo, D'Agostino, Bedinelli, Mannini (and Paolucci and Giannetti as already written).

Transfers Crotone:
IN Mory, Diop, Giannone, Ferrari, Rana, Ororio

Plasmati (Siena) could start from 1st minute.
01/27/2014 - 14:01
Hey Jerry

What's your'e % for 1x2?

01/27/2014 - 15:07
For me is 30-45-25. For my bet is: 30-70-0 and live I will see if I must change something. (i bet 80% of my stake antepost and 20 live at exchange if i must react to unexpected situations.
01/27/2014 - 19:23

45% is not realistic for a draw Jerry. Betvalue 144!

would you really play a draw in this match at 2.23 in odds?
01/27/2014 - 21:04
Tip: X, Tip correct score: 0-0
Final result: 0-0
01/27/2014 - 23:23
Oh boy, congratulations. Succesful prediction, even on correct score.
01/27/2014 - 23:40
nice one :) congrats
01/27/2014 - 23:44
You didnt answer my question?

I dont think you would play this draw down to 2.23. So point was, that 45% for a draw was unrealistic high.
01/27/2014 - 23:45
What shall I answer? I dont know how you calculate it, 2.33. I have bet X 3.20 based on the thought that Siena will hardly win, Crotone might win because is a young and good team at home, but a draw would be good for both. In my mind - because of many factors - was 30-70-0 and so I did but I am not a professional. Even with Crotone scoring I would have not lost (in my private bet, not in the tips here).
01/28/2014 - 00:03
nice pick mate!!
Didn't follow, next time I will ;-)
01/28/2014 - 00:39
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