Roma vs Livorno by JerryDrake
Roma are 8 points behind Juventus and have an advantage of 7 points over 4th placed Fiorentina. If they keep this placement at the end of the championship Roma will play in Champions League next year. Their opponents are experiencing big difficulties: Livorno are last in the table with only 13 points together with Catania. President Spinelli is accused by Livorno fans for selling many players without signing new ones. Beyond that, he also decided to substitute the trainer Davide Nicola, the one who helped Livorno to promote to Serie A, with his deputy Attilio Perotti. Livorno fans asked Perotti not to accept the job and this is a sign of tense relations in the club's world. Schiattarella moved to Spezia and soon even Paulinho could leave the team and join his fellow countrymen Hernanes, Ederson and André Dias at Lazio or Eder at Sampdoria. Maxi Lopez could sign soon for Livorno but Catania and Livorno are still negotiating his transfer.
Impressive numbers for Roma this year: 13 wins, 5 draws and only 1 defeat in their first 19 games with 39 goals scored and only 10 goals conceded (24-2 at home). Roma have the third best defense in Europe after Bayern (16 games played and 8 goals conceded) and Lille (20 games, 10 goals). Average goals conceded: 0.50 Bayern and Lille, 0.52 Roma. Only Domenico Berardi for Sassuolo and Vargas for Fiorentina succeeded in scoring at Stadio Olimpico against Morgan De Sanctis.
Giallorossi have also a good attack which creates a high number of goal chances and give also defenders and midfield players the opportunity to score. Moroccan defender Benatia already scored five goals while already thirteen different players have already scored at least once. Gervinho, Totti, Ljajic, Destro, Florenzi, Pjanic, Strootman and Maicon: danger for the opponents come from every corner of the pitch.
Livorno have lost all of their last seven away games scoring only once and conceding 15 goals. Perotti's main task will be to reorganize the defense of his team before facing a series of crucial games against Sassuolo, Catania, Genoa, Cagliari and Verona. Even Spinelli has said that his team must prepare well for Roma game, but better for the other ones.
A bet on Roma ante-post is useless with odds between 1.15 and 1.20, so I will bet on over 3.5 goals as Roma are playing an almost perfect football at home with a high number of chances and goals, above all at home. Roma strikers will try to overtake Benatia in the scoring statistics.
My fun bet will be Federico Ceccherini as “anytime goalscorer” with odds 34.00 at Bet365. He is one of the most talented young defenders in Italy and was often very close to score in the last games. He has already been called up by Luigi Di Biagio in the U21 national team and he could be one day the new “Giorgio Chiellini” of the Azzurri.
Roma (4-3-3): De Sanctis 19/-10, Maicon 16/2 (or Torosidis 5/0), Benatia 18/5, Castan 17/0, Dodò 10/0, Pjanic 18/3 (or Nainggolan 18/2), De Rossi 17/1, Strootman 17/4, Florenzi 15/5 (or Ljajic 15/3), Totti 12/4 (or Destro 5/3), Gervinho 15/4. Substitutes: Skorupski, Lobont, Jedvaj, Torosidis, Taddei, Marquinho, Borriello, Nainggolan, Destro, Ljajic, Caprari, Di Mariano. Trainer: Garcia
Livorno (5-4-1): Bardi 19/-33, Piccini 7/0, Coda 14/0, Emerson 16/1, Ceccherini 19/0, Mbaye 14/0, Benassi 4/0, Luci 18/1, Duncan 12/0, Greco 17/2 (or Siligardi 13/3), Paulinho 18/6. Substitutes: Anania, Aldegani, Biagianti, Valentini, Gemiti, Rinaud
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|Over 3.5||Pinnacle||2.59||7||3-0 LOST (-7 units)|