Atletico Madrid vs Valencia by Rostick

Atletico Madrid will look to tie Barcelona in points for the first place, while also going 5 points clear of Real Madrid with a win against Valencia at Vicente Calderon. Round 16 in the Spanish La Liga. Match analysis below.


The home side has continued its devastating form lately, winning 11 of their last 13 games, the only hiccups coming on the road in a 1-1 draw with Zenit (no motivation) and a similar result against Villareal in La Liga. Atletico is currently on a three match winning streak in all competitions, scoring at least two goals in each of these games. With Diego Costa emerging as a superstar and the team chemistry being at an all time high, the hosts can realistically hope for the title this season and this encounter is extremely important, especially after Real Madrid was held to a 2-2 draw by Osasuna. Atletico Madrid has been impressive this season, winning all their home games in all competitions (10 matches), except for the season opener against Barcelona in the Super Cup (1-1). In La Liga, Atletico is 7-0-0 at home with a goal difference of 27-4.


After losing Soldado and with their long-time financial struggles, Valencia was expected to finish mid-table this season and so far things are going as planned. Valencia is on the 9th place and their form is shaky to say the least, with only 2 wins in the last 8 La Liga matches. However, the visitors are on the back of a 3-0 win against Osasuna in the last league round.


Team news & lineups


Atletico Madrid continues to be blessed with a healthy squad, Suarez being the only absentee for this game. Valencia is also close to a clean bill of health, only having Parejo and Bernat questionable. However, both should be available to play come match-time.


Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Luis – Koke, Tiago, Gabi, Turan – Villa, Costa


Valencia: Alves – Barragan, Costa, Mathieu, Guardado – Parejo, Oriol – Feghouli, Canales, Bernat – Jonas


Atletico Madrid to win would be the obvious choice here, but the odds are way too short for anything barring an accumulator and I don`t know if the hosts can cover the spread. Over 2,5 goals seems to be the best bet here, as both sides can score. Atletico is one of the best offensive teams in Europea this season, and at home they score an average of almost 4 goals per game. Valencia has a goal difference of 21-23 in the 15 rounds elapsed so far in La Liga.


The visitors do not have a good enough defense to contain Atletico`s offensive play, and you have to expect the hosts to score at least twice today. Atletic scored 2 or more in 10 out of 11 home matches this season in all competitions. The question is if Valencia can add a goal themselves, and I reckon they can do it. They showed some good offensive display this year and, putting aside a 0-0 draw in the Cup, Valencia has scored at least once in their last 16 matches in all competitions. The last time “the Bats” failed to score in La Liga was in early March, 28 matches ago! Adding the fact that both sides are at full strength, very motivated and ready to go, this game should see at least three goals. Take the over 2,5 bet, while Atletico to win might be a good pick for accumulators if you`re not looking for value. My betting tip here is Atletico Madrid – Valencia 3-1.

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
over 2,5 Unibet 1.75 8 3-0 WON (+6 units)
0 0
Comments (1)
Atletico M(-1.5)
12/15/2013 - 20:31
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