Italy vs Sweden by KhanT

Italy
VS
Sweden
Okay, first of all I know that I'm going to get downvoted and what else, but I just have to try this pick. In my head it's the one thing that makes sense today, even with all the public bets and every tipster betting on unders, I'll go on my own route, I don't care about the public. And here is why this makes sense in my mind and for me personally.

 

The first thing is of course that odds for over in first half are so generous that I must try this pick, but on a more serious note. Italy are in danger, they cannot play slow or look for a goal somewhere in the 2nd half. We all agree and know that Sweden are most likely to set up a massive bunker and defend as hard as they can, and that's completeley fine, what else should they do? But this pick is all about Italy, I think that they will start hard today from the first minute. Why I said that they're in danger? Because if by any chance Sweden scores the second goal, then even with 2:1 Italy will not go through (2:2 on aggr. away goal). And Sweden can score that 1 goal, you never know, either from a freekick or a corner, lucky goal, it's always possible and that plan is prepared for Swedes I believe. Italy cannot wait for the 2nd half to start pushing Swedes, the more time passes, the more chances rise for Swedes to knockout Italy from the World Cup, and that would be very sad for the whole football world. I also firmly believe that Italy do not want to go to extra time or penalties at all. They want to win this in regular time and do the job as fast as possible AND THEN defend or whatever the whole world is predicting for with those unders.

 

So Italy should start attacking early from the first minute, at least in my head that's the way I see it. They have nothing to wait or think about, if they will wait too much, Swedes will become too comfortable and they will gain more and more confidence with every minute. This will just make life tougher for Italy and put them in bigger danger.

 

So I believe Italians will go crazy from the first whistle and try to look for an early goal, all hell will break loose for Swedes and then odds of 3.50 will be a real value, second one could follow in first half. I know it's crazy and against the public, but I like it and I'll take it. Good luck!

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Over 1.5 HT Bet365 3.50 8 0-0 LOST (-8 units)
+11 -13
Comments (3)
Ak
Its not possible but goodluck on your bet
11/13/2017 - 18:01
ttt
Not a terrible pick. Agree there is value in FH goals here but I doubt Italy will be able to score against the Swedish defence twice in 45 minutes. They would probably slow down the pace after the first goal.
11/13/2017 - 18:24
alex
I think Italy will manage to score in second half 1 and it not unlikely only 1 goal.
11/13/2017 - 18:37
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