Italy vs Sweden by Blackcrow
Sweden did enough to get the win at home, even thought they were dominated in the game, as they had 3 shots on goal and 3 shots off target with just 1 corner on 36% possession. Italy had 64% possession with just 2 shots on target and 6 shots off target, as well as 7 corners. It was a pretty physical game and expect the Swedes to play the same, to see if they can put the Italians off their game. The longer they can do this without conceding the more pressure the fans will put on the home team.
As such, doubt that there will be many goals in this game, as believe that Italy's pressure will tell. Eventually they will score as somehow they find a way to get around the bus that the Swedes will park in front of their goals, probably from a corner. Even if this happens, the Swedes do not have to panic, as an Italian goal will mean that it is 1-1, and it can go to extra time or penalties. While the Italians will push forward for the second goal, doubt that the Swedes will look to exploit them on the counter as they do not want to provide any holes in their defence for the Italians to exploit.
However, if the Italians do score a second, can see them content to ride it out, as they now have a 2-1 lead on aggregate. Their defence has been pretty solid at home in the qualifiers with just two goals conceded in five home games, and one was against a very good Spanish side. Try as they might, the Swedes do not have enough quality to breach this defence, and can see a similar situation like their last qualifier against Holland where they lost 2-0, but still went through on goal difference. So can see the Italians winning this 1-0 or 2-0. Doubt that they will look for a third or Sweden can breach this defence, as their goal in Stockholm was fortunate, through a deflection.
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|Italy to win and under 2.5 goals||William Hill||2.60||8||0-0 LOST (-8 units)|