Partizan vs Crvena zvezda by FairPlayBet
Only one game has left in this 7th round of ABA liga. It's a big derby between Partizan and Crvena zvezda.
The game will took place in "Pionir" hall and with Partizan hosting but in fact both sides plays it's home games on this same place. So, not real home floor advantage here except the fact there will be 90:10 in favor of Partizan when it comes to fans.
Crvena zvezda is of course favorite and I would say the handicap of around 5 pts probably not showing this enough. So, this mean probably Zvezda should cover. But it's not good spot for them. They are again coming from short rest after Euroleague game vs Bamberg. Exactly in such situation of short rest Crvena zvezda has lost two games in ABA. Zvezda is BTW 4-2 so far in ABA, the same as Partizan. But Zvezda already met with two main rivals for the title this season (Cedevita, Buducnost) and those were two mentioned defeats, while for Partizan today's game is first against one of three best teams. So, Partizan had easier schedule so far plus unlike Zvezda in Euroleague, the host play with pretty mixed roster in Eurocup.
So, obviously Partizan was more ready for games in ABA but in the same time it's clear their 4-2 don't have the same value as Zvezda 4-2.
The main question is whether tough games in Europe will affect a little bit on Zvezda, as well weather fans can have some bigger impact.
I believe Zvezda will manage to deal with above mentioned factors but note in last couple seasons since Zvezda has much more quality roster, Partizan was able pretty often to surprise.
That's why I opted for total. IMO this 170+ is way high. It's true ABA this season has big over trend but lately there were games that remained under. I think this one will be such.
Note, if this game go over, it would be one of highest totals in games between these two teams in last several seasons, maybe even the highest, but I would need double check about that.
So, I think the bookies are wrong here. They handicaped this totals like we have one good and one weak team from ABA but in fact we have two good sides here. Also note mentioned defeats of Zvezda from Buducnost and Cedevita were in games with only 154 and 153 total points. So, those were games between best teams in ABA and right away it was deep under. Partizan is that 4th projected team for playoffs, so I expect similar total points scored.
The only concern but IMO opinion small concern in taking under here is fact how Partizan play this season. I already mentioned it many times in some earlier previews. With new head coach Nikolic, Partizan play run&gun basketball. But against strongest team, I don't think we will see that. Namely I believe Zvezda won't allow to this game have such tempo.
If Zvezda enter into some run on floor while Partizan start hitting from downtown like they did in some recent games, then clearly everything is possible. That's why IMO Zvezda won't allow it. The guests IMO will try to slow down this. They have more quality, I would say pretty much on all positions, especially in the paint no matter Partizan signed recently Samuels. So Zvezda should explore it, by slowing down and pushing the ball under the rim.
I would not be surprised if this end way under the offered totals.
Both teams should be complete today. Pero Antic should be back in Zvezda roster while Partizan will have all players available who missed the previous Eurocup game.
I recommend under while as my bet for real money I took in bet365 double: Under on additional totals 174 and I combined it with Zvezda Money Line win for total odds of 2.15. I think that is even better approach although I believe there won't be problem also for this under 171.5 bet. Good luck everyone!
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|Under 171.5||Unibet||1.90||10||84-100 LOST (-10 units)|