Grebbestads vs Trollhattan by Iniestaone

This is a match between league leaders Grebbestads and second placed Trollhättan.

 

Grebbestads have been leading the league for a long time now, but their lead has shrunk after two consecutive draws (away vs 10th placed Nordvärmland and 3rd placed Karlstad, both matches ended 0-0) and they are hosting Trollhättan at the best possible time to expand their lead. Trollhättan played 3 matches last week and the coach has said that they are looking at which players they will use. They have had four days without a match but these are not professional football players, they usually have other jobs to attend and playing three matches in one week is not easy for a team in these low Swedish divisions. Trollhättan had their last match on Monday, and then they had training on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

 

Looking at Grebbestads last two matches, the odds on them winning started out lower than they were by match start. This is most likely because bookies were late to take into account that they were missnig three key players for those matches. The first 0-0 draw was at Karlstad, and taking a point there while missing key players on all three areas of the field was in fact very good considering that Karlstad is the best home side in the league. That was followed up by a 0-0 draw at Nordvärmland in a match where Nordvärmland's goalkeeper was named Man of the match.

 

They players Grebbestads were missing in those matches were defender Hegeland, creative midfielder Svensson and top scorer Henriksson. All three are back for today's match.

 

Grebbestads has only condeded 6 goals so far this season in 16 matches. Half of those at home. Their defence is extremely solid and with Hegeland back I doubt Trollhättan can score a goal. In Trollhättans recent run of 4 consecutive wins that has seen them get past Karlstad on the table, they have not faced a single top tier team and yet they conceded 7 goals in those 4 matches. I believe they will concede at least two today.

 

When playing at home, Grebbestads has convered this handicap 7/10 times in the league.

 

An alternative bet which I also find good is a straight win for Grebbestads @ ca 2.15.

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Grebbestads -1EH Unibet 3.95 8 3-2 LOST (-8 units)
+7 0
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