Copenhagen vs Vardar by FairPlayBet

Copenhagen
VS
Vardar
Champions League, 2nd leg, third round of qualifications

 

Vardar went to Denmark with nice 1-0 advantage from the first leg played at home. But I just do not think this will be enough for them. FC Copenhagen definitely will play much better game at home while I do not see Macedonian side able to score in this second leg. Vardar had plenty of luck of you ask me. I mean they were fortunate to even reach this stage. They should clearly be eliminated already in second round from another Scandinavian team. Back then Vardar met with Malme. In first leg in Sweden it was 1-1 and then in Macedonia and on neutral field, 3-1 for Vardar. But, let's start from that first leg with Malme. In Sweden it was amazing dominance of the host. I was following live bet for that game and if I remember well, somewhere near the end of the game we have had situation 16-4 shots on goal (only 1 on target for Vardar), corners 13-1, huge advantage in ball possession etc. Then in second leg Vardar was 0-1 down and with huge chance for Malme near the end of first 45 minutes. At the start of second half another amazing goal chance for Malme that would finish the job. And then as usual, when you miss all that, punishment will arrive. First Vardar score without real chance, header after corner. Then clearly referee made a mistake with giving Vardar a penalty kick. And after 2-1 there was no coming back. Malme tried something in the finish with many players going forward, but conceded after counterattack.

 

My thinking is, if Vardar played such defensive game away in Malme as I explained while it was first leg, you can imagine how defensive they will be now in Copenhagen when it is second leg while Vardar will start with 1-0 advantage from first match. I guess they will hardly be on Copenhagen half of the field. IMO there is no chance Vardar will score today.

 

Have in mind that Copehagen kept the clean sheet at home in Champions league games, is 6 of the last 8 games including last season group stage meeting with Porto, Leicester and Club Brugge.

 

Odds of 2.30 for home win to nil is great value if you ask me.

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Pick Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Copehagen win to nil Bet365 2.30 8 4-1 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
+6 -6
Comments (1)
BetMan
A word of warning here... I would not use last year's performance by FCK for this, as the defense has changed a lot since then (and not for the better). The left back is sold, just as captain and central defender Matthias Zanka Jørgensen. Add to that that right back has a long term injury and the back-up right back is injured as well. Because of this they used a left back in the right back position (Boilesen), but guess what, he's now injured as well... ;-) They will now most likely use a right winger as right back, a player who played his first game in like a half year (again, due to injury) last weekend and only joined the club in the winter transfer window. I don't think he has ever played the position before, at least not as a professional senior player.

They then also sold their best striker during the summer (Cornelius) and compared to last year's Champions League group stage they have also sold Thomas Delaney (midfielder and arguably their best and most important player).
08/02/2017 - 19:27
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