Dortmund vs Monaco by PatrickBateman
Borussia have been pretty solid lately, especially at home, where they are yet to lose this season. However, they didn`t look very powerful against solid opponents. During the last month, they lost to Hertha and Bayern, while drawing with Schalke. Defeat against Bayern on Saturday was a particularly painful one, since Bayern completely destroyed them. It was 4:1, with Borussia having no clear chances and their only goal coming after a moment of inspiration from Guerreiro. Ribery and Lewandowski gave hosts 2:0 lead by the 10th minute, and in the second half we saw Robben single-handedly beating Dortmund`s defense to make it 3:1, before Lewandowski added his second from the penalty in 68th minute. Borussia have a lot of problem with injuries, and they will be without Castro, Durm, Schurrle, Kagawa, Weigl, Reus and Gotze who is out for a long time.
Monaco are still holding on to first place in Ligue 1, with three points more than PSG. They have been in great form lately, with only loss against PSG in Coupe de la Ligue final standing out as a negative result lately. They also have, alongside Barcelona, the deadliest offense in Europe, having scored 88 goals, and that is just in the league. In their last game they recorded a routine victory on their visit to Angers - it was 1:0 with the only goal coming from Falcao in 61st minute. That game showed they are capable of winning tight games with minimal result, and not only goal-fests. They have been slightly less convincing away from home, but they have been regularly finding the back of the net. Their only two missings will be that of Boschilia and Carillo, who are both injured.
Bookies consider Borussia to be clear favourites, but I think that this clash is much more even. Sure, home advantage plays a big role here, but Monaco have been as powerful as Borussia lately, if not even more, and besides that Borussia is missing a lot of players. Since Borussia have found a net in all but one home game this season, and Monaco staggeringly failed to score only two times overall, looking at the goal markets makes perfect sense. Neither team is defensively solid, but what is more important both teams have great offenses spearheaded by in-form strikers - Aubameyang and Falcao. This is only first leg, but I can`t see anything but an open game with attacking intent from both sides. Therefore, both teams to score with over 2.5 goals looks destined here, and even though the odds are just 1.66, I will take them. I see how some might think there is no value in that, but I really can`t see a scenario in which that selection wouldn`t pass.
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|Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals||Bet365||1.66||9||2-3 WON (+5.94 units)|