Thiem vs Groth by Iniestaone
Groth likes this tournament. He is a very average player right now, ranked 180 and barely plays good tennis ever outside of Australia. When he plays at home though he is a lot better and his history in Brisbane shows it: he reached the quarterfinals in 2014 and 2015 and was knocked out by Chang in the first round last year. He has played 7 matches here all together and in four of those the 10.5 games line has been crossed in the first set. He is a very good server and the atmosphere and crowd brings out the best of his serving when he plays on home soil.
Groth defeated Herbert in three sets in his first round.
Thiem enters the match having not played at all since his World Tour Finals exit where he underperformed due to fatigue. He enters this match vs Groth as a big favorite but I don't think he will have an easy time on Groth's serve, at all. He still needs to adapt to the surface where Groth has the advantage as he knows these courts very well and he already played a match that lasted over two hours in the first round.
Groth does not have the return game to break Thiem, but he has everything else going for him to make the first set long. I don't like betting on the line here because I fear the first set will end in a 7-5/7-6 victory for Thiem with Groth collapsing in the second, losing it with big numbers.
They played two times last year and Thiem won both times, first in Miami with 7-5 6-2 and then in Stuttgart 7-6 7-6. The common denominator is of course that in both encounters the first set crossed the 10.5 line.
|1st set over 10.5 games||Marathonbet||2.59||8||13 WON (+12.72 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.