Mayer vs Hanfmann by Iniestaone
Pick based on Asian handicap. Not familiar with handicaps? Read our Asian handicap betting guide
First, some numbers: Mayer is 3/2 on indoors this season and 66/59 in his career. His three wins this season have been vs Robredo, Paire and Setkic (Setkic is his most recent win, the first round of the Eckental challenger.
Mayer was actually the underdog vs Robredo, something I can't understand as Robredo is ranked 430th and no particular threat on indoor courts. Looking back, I don't know how I missed the value pick on Mayer at almost two times the money. He won 6-2 6-2.
Setkic managed to stay close to Mayer throughout the match in the first round as Mayer won 6-4 7-6. Setkic is a big indoor server and Mayer is once again facing a tall player who serves well on indoor courts: 319th ranked Hanfmann. If you have never heard of him its very understandable because he is quite a low level challenger player. Thats why the odds on him to win are so big, and the bookies are wrong because he raises his level when he plays in Germany. Neither him nor Mayer are indoor specialists but Hanfmann has a big advantage in his serve and thats why I think he will stay close to Mayer who has not been able to stay in tournaments for long. He won the challenger in Meerbusch on clay in August and since then he has not recorded two wins in a row.
I don't think Hanfmann will cause an upset here but I see great value in backing him to cover the line. He is coming off a big 2-1 win vs Stakhovsky (5-7 6-4 6-4) and I think Mayer will once again win with a small margin.
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|Hanfmann +4,5||Marathonbet||2.00||8||13-12 WON (+8 units)|