Troicki vs Bautista-Agut by Iniestaone

I'm surprised to see Troicki being this big of an underdog and its kind of hard not to put money on him vs Bautista-Agut after his dismantling of Nadal in two sets. He broke Nadal twice (in the first set) while not being broken once himself. He looked venomous from the baseline and I don't see why he would not keep up with Bautista-Agut in the many rallies that will come from this match. He has the better serve and the courts in Shanghai fit good servers very much.


Bautista-Agut didn't look very convincing vs Fritz as he won 6-4 6-4 but he lost a lot of points on his serve and it was only due to Fritz's inexperience that he wasn't broken. Its a different story with Troicki.


They've played two times - this year - and Bautista-Agut won both. The first was in Sofia, the finals, where he simply outplayed Troicki and the second one was in Winston-Salem where Bautista-Agut played magnificent tennis and went to the finals to lose to Carreno-Busta. Those courts are slower however, the American hardcourts fit the Spaniard very well.


I think third time's a charm for the Serbian who is bursting of confidence after taking his first win vs Nadal in his 6th attempt.

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Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Troicki Marathonbet 2.56 8 0-2 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
0 0
Comments (3)
Nobody saw the great value on Troicky vs Nadal?? 3rd consecutive embarrassing defeat with odds over 3, against Troicky at 4.15. It is absolutely clear to me that Nadal on hardcourts is no longer a top10 player. I think you predicted the loss against Dimitrov, the only of these last 3 defeats that I did not put my money on it, unfortunately.
10/12/2016 - 22:43
I did call Dimitrov and yes, I agree, Nadal is no longer a top 10 player on hardcourts. I think its going to take more time for people to start seeing him as that though because of his impact on the tour the last decade, but there will be a lot of value in betting against him in the future. Esp until Roland Garross and the clay court season next year. I think thats going to be the best chance to make money because the bookies will start adjusting the odds properly after he loses matches he really shouldn't lose during spring.
10/12/2016 - 23:02
Do you know when it's the last time a guy from outside Big4 beat Nadal and did not lose the very next match?
I cannot understand why people keep on avoiding the fact that average players hardly cope mentally with the win over a great player.
Look for stats of the players who beat Federer, Nadal, Djokovic ... they're losing the next match in over 80% of the situations. Mind is not maths and it plays trricks on them :)
10/13/2016 - 05:58
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