Carreno-Busta vs Special bet by Alexcosta19
Tip for Pablo Carreno Busta #55 to win his first ATP title in Los Cabos at odds of 6 on bet365. So far, the young spaniard reached 2 finals but didn't manage to win any of them. He went close in May against Almagro in Estoril but didn't take his chance. Always hard to win your first title on the tour, and Carreno Busta will for sure get one pretty soon and in my mind, the odds are way too high knowing that we are in Semi Finals and because he played briliant so far there.
In his 2 first matches, he really was head and shoulder above Krajicek and Chardy. However, yesterday night Santiago Giraldo did put on a battle and it was one fantastic match between both of them but Carreno was better and more consistant and managed to won but Giraldo played so well, just Busta played better.
One of the most under rated player, Carreno Busta meets next fellow spaniard Feli Lopez, while in the second semi Big Ivo meets Dusan Lajovic.
I expect Carreno Busta to beat Lopez in a close one. They only met once and it was in late 2014 with a win 2-0 of Busta on fast indoor courts. Haven't seen the match so doesn"t mean much but Busta in 2014 was not as good as he is now while Lopez was at his best.
Lopez is yet to be broke in the tournament but no disrespect to Benneteau or Opelka but they have poor returns of service. He faced 8 break points however but managed to save them all averaging 86% on 1st serve against Opelka and 92% on first serve against Benneteau. These are really solid stats and showing that he is currently really serving well. However, a weakness in Feli's game is his 2nd serve and against Opelka he averaged 60% and against Benneteau 53%. That's a concern for him these are really poor % on second serve against 2 players with poor returns of service. Busta is terrific at the return and he will attack for sure on the second serv of Feli. With the way Busta is playing and knowing the Feli's stats on 2nd serv in his previous match, I expect the % to drop under 40% here.
In the other match, Lajovic served well so far and played well on his serv against Almagro so I expect one/two tiebreaks against Ivo Karlovic. A Lajovic victory is really possible there, Karlovic hasn"t been that good so far this week and a match up Lajovic/Busta in the final is clearly in "our" advantage. This is a 50-50 match in my mind so can't really talk about this.
If the final is Lajovic-Carreno, I expect Carreno to be too good for Lajovic. If the final is Carreno-Karlovic, well it's hard to predict. But the odds now are at 6.00 for a Busta victory and knowing that he is only at 2.5 tonight, this is strong. My first mind was to bet on Carreno but seeing the odd of outright, I've changed my mind with no regrets.
|Outright ATP Los Cabos||Bet365||6.00||4||Lost LOST (-4 units)|
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.