Iceland vs Special by ReguLator

Group F

 

Hungary 4

 

Portugal 2

 

Iceland 2

 

Austria 1

 

Last round

 

Hungary - Portugal (2@1.36)

 

Iceland - Austria (X2 double chance@1.28)

 

These are the most probable outcomes to these two matches and they give

 

Portugal 5

 

Hungary 4

 

Iceland 2/3

 

Austria 4/2

 

I do not believe Iceland can win Austria and Portugal will have no trouble to win Hungary.

 

In case Iceland get the draw they will get to 3 points and finish 3rd and I believe this will not be enough. Many countries with 3 points and some with 4.

 

But the value is not here. Multiplying 1.28*1.36 gives 1.74 for both outcomes so Iceland will not qualify.

 

But we can get Iceland to be eliminated @2.00 and this can be achieved with one outcome if they lose.

 

Austria to win(automatic Iceland elimination of Iceland) is @2.05 so I get 2 scenarios of elimination @2.00 which gives some great value.

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Pick Bookmaker Odds Stake Result
Iceland: Not Qualified Bet365 2.00 10 Qualified LOST (-10 units)
0 0
Comments (5)
Joey
Lucky this bet still lives.
06/19/2016 - 18:18
reguLator
This bet is like taking Austria to win but if it draws you don't lose but you get a second chance. So I take it.
06/19/2016 - 21:59
felswe
The problem here is that Iceland and Portugal will play already knowing what they need in order to qualify. In the worst case scenario as one of the best 3rd place teams. Groups A B C and D will already be decided. This is a mistake from UEFA and seems unfair. As it stands today, both Iceland and Portugal would advance with a draw, finishing with 3 draws, 3 points, and zero goal difference. Either Portugal or Iceland would advance as 2nd (the one who scored more goals in their draws) Both of them will be ahead of Albania with 3 points but -2 goal difference, and possibly ahead of other 3rd places teams, Northern Ireland for example. This makes Portugal and Iceland qualification with a draw 100% secure.
06/21/2016 - 17:09
reguLator
That is very possible scenario indeed. But I believe Portugal will win and finish 1st. Austria will win and advance as 3rd with 4 points.
06/21/2016 - 23:48
ver7
If Iceland Draw they will make it to the round 16 now. for sure as Albania and Turkey has 3 points but negative goal difference
06/22/2016 - 13:18
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